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The White Working Class is a Decisive Voting Group in 2012 - and Most of What You Read About Their Political Attitudes Will Be Completely Wrong

By Andrew Levison

As Election Day 2012 draws near it will become more and more apparent that the white working class is a pivotal group whose electoral choice will largely determine the outcome. If the percentage of white working class support for Obama remains where it is today, in the low to mid 30's, an Obama victory will be extremely difficult. If Obama's level of support rises reasonably close the percentage he received in 2008, Obama's victory becomes almost certain. As a result, in the weeks between now and November 2nd there will be a huge outpouring of analyses seeking to explain the opinions and likely electoral choices of white working class voters.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of these analyses will be fundamentally wrong.

Read the entire memo.