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Political Strategy Notes

At Five Thirty Eight, John Sides has the second installment of "The Moneyball of Campaign Advertising" (part one here) taking a skeptical view of the value of political ads, according to available data -- except when a candidate is not well-known.

Dems, know thy adversary. Democrats involved in political analysis, strategy and messaging should check out GOP messaging guru Frank Luntz's web page. Start here and keep reading and clicking.

Is the upper south trending blue? Kyle Trygstad's "Latest Quinnipiac Poll Continues to Show Virginia Is Top Battleground" at Roll Call Politics taps a new Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey to offer some encouragement to both the Obama and Kaine for Senate campaigns.

GOP bullying tactics don't work so well in the granite state, reports the AFL-CIO blog's Nora Frederickson. The Republican speaker Bill O'Brien got five of the GOP presidential candidates to pop off in favor of overriding Democratic Governor John Lynch's veto of the so-called "right-to-work" bill. But after hearing from workers, the override effort flunked, and Bachmann got booed.

John Cassidy's New Yorker article "Can Obama Win? Not This Way" makes a persuasive case that Obama campaign strategists' belief that he can win without a strong showing in the industrial states is dangerously wrong.

Curious about top corporate/PAC contributors to Democrats and Republicans? OpenSecrets.org has the percentage breakdowns for the 2012 election cycle thus far.

Need a good soundbite on GOP Senators killing the one jobs bill that has popular support? "There are 14 million people out of work, wages are falling, poverty is rising, and a second recession may be blowing in, but not a single Republican would even allow debate on a sound plan to cut middle-class taxes and increase public-works spending." So sayeth this New York Times editorial.

But the bill is about to be resurrected -- in more palatable bites. Lisa Mascaro and Christi Parsons report from the L.A. Times D.C. bureau on the strategic considerations in their article "Democrats plan next step for Obama's jobs package".

Time Magazine Swampland reports that the latest Time/ABT SRBI poll has some good news for Dems. Asked "Regardless of how you usually vote, overall, which party...do you trust to do a better job in dealing with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?", 42 percent chose Democrats and 31 percent picked Republicans, with 18 percent saying "neither." In addition, a total of 54 percent of respondents said they had a "somewhat favorable" or "very favorable" opinion of the Wall St. protests and 68 percent said "the rich should pay more taxes," while 73 percent favored tax hikes on millionaires.

Jamison Foser at Media Matters has a provocative post "The Symbiotic Relationship Between "Moderate" Republicans And The Tea Party," which faults 'moderate' GOP Senators, who "deserve far more blame than they get for Washington gridlock and the continued failure to fix urgent problems..." He calls out Maine Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, along with Mass. Sen. Scott Brown as particularly blame-worthy for political gridlock because they know better. Ditto, says Foser, for GOP House members in swing districts.