Palin Or Else | Democratic Strategist

Reader warning: I'm about to talk about a Rasmussen poll, and not only that, but a Rasmussen poll that shows Barack Obama and Mitt Romney running dead even among likely voters in a hypothetical 2012 matchup, with Obama running just six points ahead of Sarah Palin.

But here's what's interesting, even if, and particularly if, the sample for the poll skews Republican: it shows a robust 21% of likely voters supporting a third-party run for Palin if she is denied the GOP nomination.

You might object that lots of those supporters of a Palin third-party bid might be Democrats who love the idea of splitting the GOP vote to help Obama, right?

But a separate question about a three-way race with Romney as the GOP nominee and Palin running indie shows her pulling 16%, and giving Obama an eleven-pont lead.

I've always said that the hard-core supporters of St. Joan of the Tundra have a connection with her that won't go away easily. That could be a problem for the Republican Party under various scenarios.

2 Comments

| Leave a comment

Cugel | July 20, 2009 8:35 PM | Reply

There ARE NO "likely voters" this far out from an election (3 1/2 years in this case). The ONLY valid polls are those of registered voters or all voters.

If anyone had a model that could predict who will vote in 2012, they could make a killing at Vegas!

Rasmussen has a nice track record come election time because by the election their "likely voter" model is pretty close to who has actually registered and decided to vote in that election.

16 months out? Not so much. That's completely absurd. Unless they think the only people who will vote in 2012 are those who voted in 2008.

EPIC FAIL!

Cugel | July 20, 2009 8:41 PM | Reply

One minor point: Palin would be unlikely to run as an independent if she's denied the nomination. Why walk from the Republican party when she practically owns it? Since she has stronger base support in that party than any other Republican she could always sit back and watch Mitt Romney win 42% of the vote in 2012 and then claim the stage in 2016 the way Ronald Reagan did in 1980.

There would also be enormous pressure on Romney to name her as his running mate -- as with Clinton's PUMA's in 2008.

All good for Democrats of course.

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