Pew: Broad Obama Gains
The new Pew Research poll I wrote about last night has some pretty interesting internal findings.
Comparing the two candidates' standing in this poll to a mid-September Pew poll in which they were basically tied, the trends are clear and broad. In September McCain led among white voters 52-38. Now they're tied at 45%. Obama's gained 8% among men, 5% among women. Among white men and white women alike, Obama gained 7%. Most strikingly, Obama was down 50-36 among white non-college-educated voters in September. He's closed the gap to 45-42.
Looking at the electorate from a religious-affiliation point of view, Obama made high single-digit gains between the September and October polls among mainline Protestants, Catholics (both weekly attendees and those who are less observant), and less-observant white evangelical Protestants. (McCain still leads among white evangelicals overall by a 67-24 margin).
Obama leads significantly among voters who are "strong" supporters of one candidate or the other (36-21). And in a question that got a lot of attention in the last presidential cycle, 77% of Obama supporters say they're voting for him instead of voting against McCain. In the 2004 exit polls, only 43% of Kerry voters said that.
Pew rates 23% of voters as "swing" in the sense of not being completely certain of how they will vote. Of those, 8% lean to Obama, 6% to McCain, while 9% claim to be purely undecided.
Any way you slice it, Obama's lead over McCain is exceptionally broad-based and doesn't seem to depend on any particular demographic group. And with under two weeks left, that doesn't offer much of a strategic target for John McCain.






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what about the AP poll that has it dead even nationally and in all battle ground states, citing the debate performance of McCain?