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« Avoid the Highs and Lows | Main | The Size of the Current Swing Vote »

Dems Have Modest Prospects in Gov Races

All but forgotten amid the excitement of the presidential race, the 11 governorship elections that will also be decided on November 4th are nonetheless important to the future of the Democratic Party. Dems are defending six governorships, Republicans have five. Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball '08 has the inside skinny on each of the races, and an excerpt from his take follows:

...We think the most likely national outcome ranges from a net Democratic gain of one governorship, to a net Republican gain of one. This is no earth-shattering shift either way, yet one party will get minor bragging rights--unless the highest probability outcome occurs: that is, shifts in two or three states produce no net change in the total of 28 D, 22 R governors (the current net line-up).

Sabato, who has an impressive track record in his election outcome predictions, rates MO as the most likely Dem pick-up, and he sees WA and NC as toss-ups.

Posted by staff on October 9, 2008 07:16 AM

Comments

Very interesting post. I tend to think the same thing. There's really only a handful of competitive seats, so it will be hard for any substantial gains. I had the Dems picking up one seat in a Senate forecast that I wrote at demockracy.com a few weeks ago, so I think we're on the same page here.

9/17 Governor Forecast

Posted by: kjvd00 [TypeKey Profile Page] | October 11, 2008 01:18 AM

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