ShareThisWhite Male Dems An Endangered Species?
Thomas F. Schaller has a provocatively titled Salon post "So Long White Boy," in which he all but urges Democrats to write off the white male voter, or as the article subtitle asks "Could 2008 be the year that Democrats finally admit an old sweetheart is never coming back, and stop pandering to the white male voter?" Schaller trots out some interesting numbers to bolster his argument, including:
In 2004, according to New York Times exit polls, Democrat Kerry won 38 percent of the total white male vote, confirming a familiar pattern. Kerry's share was basically the same that every Democratic presidential candidate has received since Michael Dukakis. In the four elections between 1988 and 2000, in fact, using New York Times exit poll results, the Democratic nominee won 36 percent, 37 percent, 38 percent and 36 percent, respectively, of votes cast by white men. Because white men cast between 33 and 36 percent of all votes in 2004, that means a mere 12 to 13 percentage points of Kerry's 48 percent nationally came from white men -- about one vote in four. Nevertheless, and despite running against an incumbent in the first post-Sept. 11 presidential election, Kerry still came within one state of winning the Electoral College. Four years earlier, Al Gore also came within one state of reaching the magical 270 electors, and actually won the popular vote nationally -- while, like Kerry, receiving only about one-fourth of his support from white men.
Schaller concedes that Dems are still "competitive" among white women voters and that unionized white male voters are still pro-Democratic. He compares demographic trends and voting patterns for white male and African American voters and concludes:
Democrats are able to neutralize their white male voter problem with votes from African-Americans -- even though the latter group is only about one-third the size of the former....today, the black vote fully compensates for the Democrats' deficit among white men.
Schaller doesn't say anything about what possible effect discontent over the Iraq war, GOP scandals or other issues may have on white male votes in '08. And Democratic presidential candidates may be less eager than he to write off one out of four of their voters. But it's an important article in terms of political strategy, and one which merits the attention of Dems concerned about the Party's future.
Michael Moore made the same observation 10 years ago and it's just as silly now as it was then.
The only reason to write off the white men who do vote Democrat is if you can gain more votes someplace else by doing so. As the article pointed out, 90+% African Americans already vote Democrat so we're not likely to gain ground there. When it comes to other demographics, I'd be interested in hearing what issue (besided illegal immigration) people feel there is a real trade off and real ground to be gained by sacrificing the votes of white men and the votes of other groups.
More importantly, as 2000 taught us, the Presidential election is about the Electoral College and most of the non-white electorate lives in the proverbial "blue states" while the "red" and "purple" states are more heavilly white. Granted, population trends tell us that the Latino/Latina vote is growing quickly in the Southwest, but is gaining a better chance at winning Arizona and New Mexico really worth guaranteeing yourself loses in so much of the rest of the country?
I'm not arguing that Democrats should focus all their attention on the white male vote, I just think we should cautious around talk of ignoring any constituency.