ShareThisSolid GOP South Cracking?
Facing South's Chris Kromm blogs on an article in Hastings Wyman's 's Southern Political Report predicting a net pick-up of seven southern House seats for Dems. Wyman, identified by Kromm as a "former Republican operative," says Dems will pick up FL 13, 16 and 22; Ky 4; NC 11; TX 22; and Va 2. He rates FL 8 and NC 8 as toss-ups.
If Wyman is right, the south may contribute a healthy portion of the Democrats' expected margin of victory. And with Harold Ford and James Webb running highly competitive campaigns in TN and VA respectively, it's possible the South could also make a significant contribution to winning back the Senate.
Kromm quotes the subtitle of Thomas Schaller's forthcoming In These Times article "Where the Seats Are," making a very different prediction: "The Democrats are going to gain seats in the 2006 midterms, and those gains will come from outside the South." Schaller's view gets a little boost from an article in yesterday's New York Times "Georgia Home to Two of a Rare Breed — the At-risk Democrat" about the possibility of Dems losing two House seats, GA 8 and 12.
I always enjoy the insightful notes in the Daily Strategist. I just want to caution against overgeneralizing from the nine races listed by Wyman. Notice that none of those races are in the deep south--MS, AL, GA, SC (I live in FL, and trust me, it's not the deep south). So it might be more appropriate to suggest that Dems are making "inroads into the fringes" of the South. Note also that some of those areas (FL, NC, VA) have been experiencing high population growth including migrants from out-of-state, so demography alone could explain the shift in their traditional conservative leanings.