« Swingers | Main | Immigration Clarification »

LA Times Poll: Dems Gain in Congressional Races

The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll just out gives the GOP a lot to worry about. The poll, conducted 6/24-27, paints "a gloomy picture for the Republicans in Congress," with Dems poised to make substantial gains in the November elections.

The poll indicates Dems enjoy a 14-point advantage among registered voters in races for congressional seats "if elections were held today." The poll also reveals a widening gender gap, more like a gender gulf, really, with women now giving Dems a 26 point advantage in their congressional districts. The poll found that 54 percent of all respondents wanted the Dems to control both houses of congress.

The poll also indicates that, even though Bush apparently gets a small post-Zarqawi bump in his approval ratings, he is more of a liability for congressional candidates than an asset. More than one-third of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who had Bush's endorsement or who supported his policies, 45 percent said it would not matter and less than a fifth said they would be more likely to vote for a Bush-supported candidate.

The poll also addresses current opinion trends on a range of issues, including Iraq and immigration. For the time-challenged, LA Times columnist Ron Brownstein has a wrap-up here.

Comments

We have to remember that these generic congressional ballot polls are essentially meaningless as an indicator of the Democratic party's chances of winning a majority in the House or Senate. Winning a majority is all about winning individual congressional districts, not the nation as a whole. Most analysts following individual district races are predicting a gain of a few seats for Dems, but not necessarily enough to win a majority in either house.

Actually the results of the generic vote question are far from meaningless--there is a fairly strong correlation (about .8) between the results of the generic vote question and the actual seat swing in House elections . The current Democratic advantage of 10-12 points, if it continues into the fall, predicts substantial Republican losses in the House elections.

Post a comment

Posting Policy

The Democratic Strategist's comments section welcomes intelligent discussion and debate from individuals representing every sector of the Democratic community.

Because of the spam problem, the first time you leave a comment you will have to sign up for a username by filling out a brief form. This just takes about two minutes and after that you will always be able to join the discussion just using your username and password.

Also, please note that all comments must be expressed in a mature and civil tone of voice. Individuals posting rude or otherwise inappropriate material will lose their access to the discussion.

Thank You, TDS staff

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Remember me?