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December 29, 2006

Dem Seers Chart Course for New Year

The political year-ender articles are appearing in blogs and rags everywhere. Most of them are straight-forward wrap-ups, but a few have some interesting things to say about the Democrats' future.

Todd Gitlin's Mother Jones piece "Big Tent. Big Plans?" charts a course for the Democrats' future. As Gitlin suggests:

Democrats have to contain the tensions already evident under the big tent: netroots vs. apparatchiks, free traders vs. fair traders, red-staters vs. blue-staters, Hillaryites vs. anyone-buts...Don't bet that the cracks are fated to deepen into fault lines either. Political pros and amateurs alike know that a widening base requires more than "enough is enough." To build such an alliance, a majority that doesn't have to rely on winning by margins so skimpy they invite vote fraud, Democrats need to take care of both the immediate no-brainers—minimum wage up, drug prices and college costs down—and the common-good programs that will endure for more than one season.My own middle-term wish list is fourfold: a rapid exit from Iraq along with real Middle East diplomacy; universal health insurance; a return of progressive taxation; and real R&D on energy alternatives, a twofer that creates jobs while addressing global warming. All of these embody liberal principles and skirt what's left of the culture-war morass.

You know that stuff about Dems making nice and extending a spirit of bipartisan collegiality to the Repubs? Progressive populist Jim Hightower isn't having any of it. As he puts it in his Alternet year-ender, "Throw the Bums Out and Change Direction":

...there are still too many go-slow, don't-rock-theboat, weak-kneed, money-grubbing, corporatized Democrats who won't break their habits of bedding down with the lobbyists and even the Bushites. They will push hard from inside the Democratic Caucus (while the White House, the money interests and the establishment media pushes from outside) for the majority to "be nice," move to the corporate right, and agree from the start to surrender half of what they want (and then compromise down from there).

Now is the time for progressives to be more vigilant than ever -- focus on what the Democrats are doing and not doing, make loud and clear demands that they do more, and keep organizing at the grassroots level. Just a few months ago, George W. declared, "I'm the decider." No, he's not. Neither are the Democrats. You are.

Hightower makes another good point in his article -- Dems need to start paying more attention to winning Secretary of State posts in the states to prevent further election theft, the "key to getting a grip on our democracy."

And Salon's Joe Conason warns

...the opportunity to rebuild a governing majority of the center-left could evaporate without being realized...the new Democratic congressional leaders must quickly deliver real government accountability as well as substantial reorganization of their own institutions. While voters may understand that major changes in healthcare, education and environmental stewardship will be difficult to enact under this administration, they will not have much patience for any evasion on reform of Congress.

If there is a common thread in these three posts, it is that Dems don't have a lot of time to produce and need to get busy to get in optimum position for the '08 elections.

December 26, 2006

Dems Expected to Produce Health Care Reform

Few domestic priorities facing congressional Democrats generate more concern among voters than health care reform, and the challenge is aptly encapsulated in the title of Ezra Klein's op-ed in today's LA Times -- "Going universal: The American healthcare system is, simply put, a mess, but we may finally be ready to fix it." Klein succinctly delineates the dimensions of the health care crisis and discusses some of the current reforms being debated. He believes the time is ripe for health care reform to gain some political traction:

Across the country there are unmistakable signs that the gridlock and confusion sustaining our sadly outdated system are coming to an end and that real reform may finally emerge...Nationally, the Democratic resurgence has returned universal healthcare to the agenda and its advocates to power. In the House, Rep. Pete Stark (D-Fremont), a staunch Medicare-for-all advocate, is expected to be chairman of the health subcommittee.

Dems who want to get up to speed on public opinion on health care reform will find no better place to go than Ruy Teixeira's article "What the Public Really Wants on health Care" at The Century Foundation. As Teixera notes:

The public desire for change in the health care arena is so strong that policy-makers would be well-advised to start concentrating on the issue now, rather than face the wrath of a frustrated public in the next election cycle.

Teixeira cites opinion data showing that nearly twice as many Americans are more worried about health care costs than unemployment and nearly three in ten say someone in their household has not had needed medical care or medicine during the last year because of cost. Teixeira also shows overwhelming majorities in favor of universal coverage and concludes that "The public is ready for change and the next election cycle is likely to punish those who stand in the way."

Democrats in congress will have to decide whether "big package" health care reform is now tactically as feasable as a step-by-step approach. But when November '08 rolls around, it is critical for Dems that a significantly higher percentage of Americans feel their health security has improved.

December 24, 2006

West, South May Define Political Future

All arguments about party preferences aside, the west and south will likely have a powerful influence on America's political future as the fastest-growing regions in the nation. So notes Facing South's Chris Kromm in his article "The Fast-Growing South." Kromm tales a look at just-released Census data and shows that five of the top ten fastest-growing states in percentage terms are southern states: GA (4th), TX (5th), NC (7th), FL (9th) and SC (10th). Kromm elaborates:

The Northern states hailed as the future of the Democratic Party by some pundits are nowhere to be found on the list. Indeed, as if to answer those who claim the Midwest and Northeast should be the centerpiece of progressive strategy, the Census Bureau observes:

* The Northeast region grew by only 62,000 people. In contrast, the South grew by 1.5 million and the West by 1 million.

Ranking the fastest-growing states in terms of raw numbers, the South looks even more significant, TX (1st), Fl (2nd), GA (4th), NC (6th) and TN (10th).

December 23, 2006

How Unions and the Democratic Party Can Grow Together

Jim Grossfield and Celinda Lake illuminate a key challenge facing Democrats and Unions in their American Prospect article "A Union Hearing." Although the article focuses on new approaches for organizing white collar workers, it includes some fresh insights about how Dems and Labor can help each other grow together. First they outline the problem:

Among Washington's political cognoscenti it is considered a no brainer that idle chatter about unionism will brand a candidate as a hopelessly unreconstructed "old" Democrat. At the very least, they warn, it would be "off message," given that voters have about as much interest in labor issues as they do in, say, the Law of the Sea. The upshot of this conventional wisdom is that, today, not many Democrats are willing to step forward to promote unionism. What's more, few labor leaders even ask them to.

For Dems, this timidity has a price, as Lake and Grossfield note:

That's too bad, because by speaking out for unions Democrats could not only help to mobilize public support for one of their most effective and most embattled allies, but also speak to the growing economic insecurity of one of their least reliable constituencies: young, educated, white collar workers, particularly younger women struggling with low wages and high prices.

The authors argue that Democrats must talk more about unions, but in different ways. And targeting millions of white collar workers who are experiencing a growing sense of economic insecurity is critical for prospects for both unions and the Democratic party. As they conclude:

There's no question that it would be in the labor movement's interest if more Americans knew about this kind of unionism. But it could also help Democrats, if they embraced it as part of their commitment to helping Americans navigate their way through the new economy. It could be one way that Democrats help workers gain the training, health care, and pensions they need, and create more balance between work and family. Democrats ought to speak out for new unions because they believe partnerships between employers and employees are fundamental to keeping American businesses strong and competitive.

Recently, AFL-CIO Legislative Director Bill Samuel said that it would "take a movement" to pass the Employee Free Choice Act and strengthen the right to organize. With new majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats can help build that movement. And they should. But to do that they need to talk less about unions as they are and more about what they can become. It is not enough to persuade young, college educated Americans that unions are a good things for janitors and poultry workers. They need to understand that this is about their future, too.

If sinking deeper roots in the middle class is a priority for long-range Democratic strategy, reading Grossfield's and Lake's article is a good place to begin.

December 20, 2006

New Tiger at the Helm of DCCC

Speaker-elect Pelosi has had her share of controversial appointments during the last month. But her choice for the new head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (MD), is drawing plaudits from donkeys of all shades. Naturally, WaPo has the best story on the Van Hollen appointment, since his congressional district borders on the capitol. As Ann E. Marimow reports:

Emanuel, who will chair the Democratic Caucus, praised his successor yesterday as a "political strategist and thinker of the first order" and said Van Hollen's recruitment of House candidates helped create the first Democratic majority elected in 12 years.

"Throughout this election, I sought his advice and counsel in every critical decision I had to make," Emanuel said in a statement.

Van Hollen knows something about how to beat popular Republican incumbents, having defeated well-liked Rep. Connie Morella to win his seat in Montgomery County. More importantly, Van Hollen is reputed to be a tireless and shrewd workhorse, as Marimow reports:

Maryland Senate President Thomas V. "Mike" Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) called Van Hollen a hard-working go-getter who should never be underestimated. "He doesn't take no for an answer. He pursues his goals tenaciously..."

In the past year, Van Hollen worked closely with Emanuel as a leader of the campaign committee's effort to pick up seats in Republican strongholds. He spent months traveling from Pennsylvania to Ohio and Indiana to identify and mentor candidates, then helped build fledgling campaign and fundraising operations.

It would be hard to top outgoing DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel's run-of-the-table on November 7th. But Dems can rest assured that their '08 House campaign will be at full strength in a few weeks.

December 18, 2006

NPR/GQR Poll Outlines Dem Mandate

Some broad outlines of the mandate voters gave incoming congressional Democrats are delineated in a new NPR survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12/7-10. Perhaps the most significant finding, in terms of policies voters would like to see implemented with respect to Iraq, is described thusly in the GQR Executive Summary:

Iraq continues to be the leading concern for voters and our survey finds the public skeptical about achieving stability in Iraq. While a sizable plurality of 44 percent say Iraq will be less stable if the US begins to withdraw troops during the first half of 2007, nearly two-thirds favor withdrawing from Iraq during the first half of 2007 regardless.

Another interesting finding of the poll indicates that voters are not "over" their dissatisfaction with the GOP a month after the mid-term elections, according to the Executive Summary:

Opinion of the Republican party has worsened. Currently 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the party.

And even better for the Democrats:

The November election helped Democrats improve their standing as this poll records the highest percentage of favorable feelings toward the Democratic party in the past two years.

The poll also found an 18-point advantage for Dems with respect to generic presidential preferences and only one out of four voters saying the country is "heading in the right direction." The poll also found that 71 percent of voters wanted congressional Democrats "to work together in a bipartisan way with Republicans and encourage more cooperation and compromising to get things done," although the poll did not indicate how far voters wanted Dems to compromise on specific issues. For more details see the PDF here and the NPR report here.

December 15, 2006

Time for Redistricting Hardball?

Democrats now control both houses of 24 state legislatures (20 before the election) and have added 6 governors for a new total of 28. In light of this substantial increase of strength at the state level, should Dems now press the case for redistricting before the next census where we can?

The Democratic Strategist discussed various aspects of "the redistricting myth" in our July roundtable and posts here and here. But things have changed for the better since November 7th, and the new political reality cries out for a reconsideration. Now Jonathan Singer at MyDD kicks off a new debate about redistricting with his post "House 2008: Mid-Census Redistricting in New Mexico?." Singer is wary of early redistricting in NM in particular, and of redistricting before the census in general:

Voters went to the polls looking for change on November 7 and as a result will have scant patience if Democrats start using the type of strong-arm tactics implemented by Republicans to maintain power over the last dozen years. Secondly, redrawing lines to create more theoretically Democratic districts has the potential to make Democratic support in the remaining districts so thin that the Republicans can come in and challenge previously safe seats, potentially negating any benefits of redistricting.

Singer's points are well-made, but there may be some cases where pre-census redistricting makes strategic sense, and/or serves fairness. Additionally, the population is so fluid and mobile nowadays that the ten year census provides a flawed reflection of demographic reality. Further, some states conduct their state-wide census counts mid-point between the federal census, so the demographic updates are available. It's an important strategic choice, which merits a thorough discussion.

December 13, 2006

Lone Star Donkeys Deliver Sweet # 30

Just when you thought it couldn't get any sweeter, along comes Ciro Rodriguez with an upset run-off victory over 7-term GOP congressman Henry Bonilla in TX-23. This gives the Dems a net 30 pick-up in the House and will leave Republicans without a single Mexican-American member of Congress. So much for the GOP's pipedreams about winning the support of Hispanic voters. Rodriguez undoubtedly benefitted from the court-ordered redrawing of TX-23. But he also used his party affiliation to good effect. As CQPolitics.com's Greg Giroux notes in his New York Times article:

...one of Rodriguez’ biggest added advantages in the runoff campaign was that he could boast of being a member of the House majority if he were to be elected — something he could not definitively claim before the primary, which coincided with the national Election Day.

And don't let anyone get away with chalking this one up to a Democrat moving to the right. As Giroux notes:

Rodriguez’s win probably will be brandished by political liberals as evidence that they can prevail in partisan battleground districts. Rodriguez voted against authorizing military operations in Iraq; in favor of a minimum wage increase; and against proposed bans of same-sex marriage and “partial birth” abortion.

Yep, that's right. Deep in the heart of Texas.

December 10, 2006

Dem Prospects May Depend on 'Invisible Primary'

Money being the 'mother's milk' of politics, the pursuit of the cash cows by Presidential aspirants is already well-underway. So report Chris Cillizza and Michael A. Fletcher in their Sunday WaPo article "Candidates Woo Bush Donors for 'Invisible Primary." Fletcher and Cillizza explain the 'Rangers' and 'Pioneers' strategy presidential candidate Bush used in 2000, noting,

These Rangers, who raised $200,000 or more for Bush in 2004, and Pioneers, who each collected more than $100,000 as part of campaigns that redefined modern political fundraising, are being intensely courted by GOP presidential aspirants across the country, both in large gatherings...and one-on-one.

The authors are primarilly concerned with the fund-raising efforts of GOP candidates in this piece, but they have the following to say about Democrats moving into position for a presidential run:

Although Democrats do not have an equivalent for the Rangers and Pioneers, their leading candidates have already begun making the rounds of wealthy donors.

Last week, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) ventured to New York to meet with a group of potential donors assembled by liberal philanthropist George Soros.

And Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) has spent much of the past two years building a fundraising infrastructure that raised nearly $50 million for her lopsided reelection campaign. The donors who contributed to that campaign can give again, should she run for president in 2008.

The authors term aggressive early fund raising as a sort of "invisible primary," the winners of which get a huge jump before anyone in Iowa or New Hampshire casts a ballot. All in all, it is a sobering look at the money game behind political campaigns. But the Democrats do have a fund-raising advantage, as noted by David D. Kirkpatrick in his New York Times article "G.O.P. Draws Fire on Senate Race Spending," quoting political analyist Stuart Rothenberg on the benefits of the November 7th Democratic sweep:

People are going to be clamoring to give to the Democrats...For the Republicans, it is going to be pulling teeth, especially with a presidential race coming up

Taken together, the two aforementioned articles provide instructive insights into the 'money game,' as played by winners and losers.

December 7, 2006

Democratic Governors Setting Stage for '08

Associated Press reporter Nedra Pickler's article "Democratic Governors Plan to Use New Power" should be of interest to candidate watchers and Democratic strategists. Pickler points out that states with Democratic governors increased their electoral vote strength from 207 to 295, as a result of the November 7 election (270 needed to win). Pickler quotes Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, incoming chair of the Democratic Governors Association offering this encouraging assessment:

The framework is in place, I think, to elect a Democratic president

Governor Sebelius also points out that next year 54 percent of Americans will live in states run by Democratic governors. Interestingly Sebelius and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer are both quoted expressing skepticism that their states electoral votes will go to the Democratic '08 nominee, while Governor Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, who won every county in his state, is more optimistic about Dems' chances in the south.

The article also mentions the "Denver-based New West Project, designed to deliver the region to the Democratic presidential nominee...a political network to get out the Democratic vote, which will help in 2008." For more about The New West Project, which includes participation from members of Congress and other state officials as well as Governors, read John Aloysius Farrell's Denver Post article "Dems forge group to milk Western gains."

December 5, 2006

Needed: Stronger Dem Leadership for Katrina Recovery

With less than two years to go before the '08 elections, the restoration of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast is reportedly bogging down in a bureaucratic morass, from levee repair to the clean-up to housing. You can read about it here, here and here.

The thing for Democrats to keep in mind is that, if the pace hasn't picked up when November '08 rolls around, we won't have Prez heckuva-job to blame for the mess. Voters will expect a Democratic-controlled congress to provide some vigorous leadership. If by that time, we are still investing more in Iraq's infrastructure than our own, we shouldn't be surprised if Democrats are held responsible.

An estimated two-thirds of New Orleans residents have returned to the city, according to the Louisiana Recovery Authority. The missing third evacuees are most likely disproportionately Democratic voters. Most would come home, if they had a decent place to live, and could count on good schools for their kids and stable jobs for family breadwinners. Democrats must provide the leadership needed to make this happen, not only because Democratic office-holders in the region will be held accountable if we don't, but because we are the party that addresses the needs of working people. The Big Easy and the Gulf Coast are the proving grounds.

Dems must hit the ground running when the new Congress convenes after the holidays. We do indeed need to pass a 'Marshall Plan' for the Gulf Coast, with strong prevailing wage protection. We need legislation to compell insurance companies to honor their commitments at an accelerated pace. National Guard units in Iraq should be redeployed to New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, where they can help maintain order and assist with the clean-up. The list goes on and on. The point is to take decisive action, to provide a clear answer to the question 'What would FDR do?'

For many of the swing voters of '06, the Administration's dismal performance in the wake of Hurricane Katrina was the turning point, the moment when they said. "OK, that's enough for this clown show. It's time to give the other guys a chance." If Dems rise to the challenge, and make New Orleans and the Gulf Coast a showcase for their leadership, '08 will be an even better year than '06.

December 3, 2006

Dems Weigh Proposal to Discourage 'Frontloading' Primaries

Jeff Zeleny reports in the New York Times on an unusual proposal before the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee to discourage further "frontloading" of Presidential primaries. While Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina have nailed down early primary dates, other states are now scrambling to lock in early dates. But the proposal before the DNC would give "incentive delegates" to states that chose later primary dates. Here is the breakdown, as outlined by Zeleny:

States holding 2008 primaries between February 5 and March 31 — known as stage 1 — will get no bonus delegates.

States with contests between April 1 and April 30 — stage 2 — receive a 5 percent bonus for staying in that time period.

States with contests between May 1 and June 10 — stage 3 — will receive a 10 percent bonus for staying in that timeframe.

At the same time, if any state in stage 1 moves to stage 2, it receives a 15 percent bonus. Finally, if a stage 1 or 2 state moves into stage 3, it receives a 30 percent bonus.

The DNC will vote on the proposal in February. The argument in favor of frontloading primaries is that it allows time for Dems to unify behind a candidate. The argument against frontloading is that it gives the GOP an early target and leaves the Democrats with a boring mid and late primary season, giving the GOP a significant advantage in media coverage. Hopefully each state will consider the greater Democratic good, as well as it's own interests. Either way, it is a strategic consideration that merits more media coverage and further discussion among Democratic rank and file.

December 1, 2006

Dems Set to Ride Hispanic Tide in '08

John Zogby's "The Battle for the Latino Vote" at the HuffPo has a couple of graphs that ought to command the attention of every '08 candidate:

Just to put things in context, consider these figures: Hispanics were 5% of 95 million voters in 1996, 6% of 105 million voters in 2000, and 8.5% of 122 million voters in 2004. With a highly competitive election in 2008 and a heavy voter registration drive, we could be looking at an electorate that includes a Hispanic component amounting to 10% of 130 million voters in 2008.

Republicans took a drubbing among Hispanics this year. From George Bush's 40% share in 2004, the Republicans managed only to garner only 30% this year. Just think what that means in the context of huge growth in the numbers Hispanic voters. For 2008 that could mean a decline of 1.3 million Hispanic Republican votes in elections that have been won and lost by mere hundreds and thousands of votes. The impact could be particularly significant in such key competitive states like Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, and Colorado, all of which include large Hispanic populations.

The Latino demographic is expanding even faster in the southeastern states. As things stand now, the explosive growth of Hispanic voters bodes well for Dems --- especially those who refuse to get hustled by immigrant-bashing demagoguery.