Primaries Message: Ground Game, Poll Monitoring Critical
Democrats wondering how to tweak campaign strategies in the wake of Tuesday's primaries are directed to Chris Cillizza's and Jim VandeHei's WaPo article "In R.I., a Model for Voter Turnout: Employing Senate Primary Strategy May Give GOP an Edge." Read the entire article, but give this excerpt some extra thought:
The turnout campaign that Republican operatives used to help pull Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee to victory in the Rhode Island primary was a potent demonstration of how money and manpower can transform a race even in an unfavorable political environment -- and a preview of the strategy that national party officials say they plan to replicate in the most competitive House and Senate races over the next 55 days.
In the past two national elections, in 2002 and 2004, Republicans outperformed Democrats in bringing their backers to the polls, but many Democrats and independent analysts have suggested that the competition may be different this year, in part because of slumping morale among GOP activists. But Chafee's performance -- combined with reports of late-starting organization and internal bickering on the Democratic side -- suggest that the Republican advantage on turnout may remain intact even as many other trends are favoring the opposition.
The Republican National Committee, convinced that Chafee is the party's only chance of keeping a seat in a Democratic-leaning state, spent $400,000 to ship 86 out-of-state volunteers and several paid staff members to Rhode Island. They targeted not just Republicans but also independent voters during the final days of the campaign, following a blueprint developed months ago by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Chafee campaign.
..."Their turnout operation is exquisite," a senior Democratic strategist said. "We are not going to match them."
Gulp. And then there's this:
Recent history underscores the importance of superior voter-mobilization plans. In 2004, Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) thought that if he received 190,000 votes it would be impossible for former congressman John Thune (R) to beat him. Daschle won 193,340 votes; Thune got 197,848. In Ohio -- the central battleground in the race between Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) -- Democrats met all of their projected vote totals but came up more than 100,000 short.
VandeHei and Cillizza provide a lot of very interesting detail about the GOP's strategy and tactics in R.I.. Read it all. Twice.
Also check out Ron Brownstein's more encouraging L.A. Times wrap-up of the primaries, probably the best yet published on the topic. Not to pile on with the hand-wringing, but Brownstein adds:
In a memo obtained by The Times, RNC officials said they used their "microtargeting" technology, which tries to deduce voter sympathies in part by tracking their consumer preferences, to direct a massive get-out-the-vote effort for Chafee. The RNC said its turnout program made 198,921 contacts with voters in the campaign's final 11 days, helping to propel a record turnout nearly 40% larger than the previous high in a Republican primary.
That large influx to the polls "means there was a bunch of independents who flooded into that primary and they are the ones who saved Chafee," said Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University in Rhode Island. "It suggests that this general election is going to be very competitive."
And if the GOP turnout machine wasn't enough to worry about, Dems need to take a hard look at the failures of election day machinery, particularly the Maryland mess. For more on this, check out Richard Wolf's disturbing USAToday piece "Election Watchers Predict Glitches" and hope -- nay, pray -- that Dems are on the case.