Will the Real Party Preferences of the American Electorate Please Stand Up? (Part Deux)
Yesterday, I wrote about Bush's plumetting approval rating (from 57 percent to 49 percent) in the Gallup poll and speculated that this new, more reasonable Bush approval rating was probably accompanied by the abrupt disappearance of the wacky +9 Republican party ID in their earlier poll.
As Fidel might put it, history has absolved me. Steve Soto is on the case and has extracted the party ID distribution of the latest poll sample from Gallup. It is +1 Democratic. So, from February 4-6 to February 7-10, Gallup is telling us there was a 10 point swing in party ID, from +9 Republican to +1 Democratic.
That strikes me--and most others outside of Gallup HQ, I suspect--as pretty damn implausible.