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Bush's Mighty 2 Point Win

This just in from Michael McDonald of George Mason University:

New York just reported its certified election results. With only two states (Maine and Pennsylvania, I use their AP reported results) left to certify we have the following popular vote results:

Bush: 61,816,317 (50.62%)
Kerry: 58,824,880 (48.17%)
Total: 122,124,783 (turnout rate: 59.9% of voting-eligible population)

Bush's popular vote margin is now 2,991,437 or 2.45 percentage points. In all likelihood, it will go lower when Pennsylvania certifies their results.

New York's turnout is now 2.2 percentage points higher than 2000, meaning that turnout was up in every state.

Interesting. That means, among other things, that you could already round his victory down to 2 points, if you were dealing with whole numbers. And even if you're dealing with two significant digits, very soon his margin will likely round down to 2.4 (instead of up to 2.5) which will further promote the sense it was a 2 point victory.

So: the mighty Bush win is now down to 2 points. Spread the word.


With a margin of 2.991 million and falling, he won by less than 1% of the U.S. population, which the Census Bureau estimates to be 294,940,788 as of 12/9/2004-21:21:03 EST.

I would add that having fallen below Woodrow Wilson's percentage margin in 1916, this is the narrowest margin of victory for an incubment in a two-way race in U.S. history.

Bush's percentage is going down, but Kerry's is not going up. What gives?

Good catch...the reason the numbers don't add up is that the Kerry and Bush lines for the Working Families Party and the Conservative Party in New York were not entered correctly into their vote totals. The corrected numbers are:

Bush: 61,971,891 (50.74%)
Kerry: 58,958,405 (48.28%)
Margin: 3,013,486 (2.47%)

I still expect the margin will drop under 3 million when PA certifies.

Would it be ungentlemanly of me to point out that the numbers in Ohio and Florida are so dubious as to have become the object of of several legal actions?