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Bush's Lead Down to 2.6 Percent and Falling!

Michael McDonald of George Mason University provides the latest turnout numbers and presidential results:

Total vote for President: 121,491,696

Turnout Rate: 59.6%

Bush 61,755,732 50.83%
Kerry 58,554,961 48.20%
Other 1,181,003 0.97%

Still waiting on 17 states to certify results, including California, New York, and of course, Ohio. Turnout might yet inch up a little higher and Bush may yet drop under 50.8% of the vote. New York is the only state to have a lower turnout rate than 2000.

Interesting! Could Bush's lead drop to 2.5 percent or even (dare I think it?) below? Stay tuned....

Comments

No doubt an honest vote count would diminish Bush's margin even further. Yet, I don't believe Bush stole his popular majority --- it's just too hard to steal 3+ million votes all over the country without getting nailed somewhere. I'm finally persuaded, however, that, yes, the election was probably stolen in Ohio. There is lots of compelling evidence -- too much to present here. Jesse Jackson gives a pretty good quickie summation in htttp://www.suntimes.com/output/jesse/cst-edt-jesse30.html. The bummer is that there isn't much that can be done about it. Given that the Ohio Secretary of State is also Bush's state campaign manager and Diebold's shamelessly pro-Bush admission, it is unlikely that any black box shenanigans can be proven. No doubt, many, if not most of the stolen votes were suppressed and never cast in the first place, as frustrated voters in African American precincts were misled to non-existent polling sites, or discouraged by long lines caused by few voting machines. Add to that bogus felon disenfranchisement and other GOP "ballot security" scams, and it's not hard to imagine 120K votes for Kerry in Ohio being turned into vapor. Yes, we should protest, demand a full recount and raise hell about it. But even if we get conclusive proof, the US Supreme Court would surely screw the Democrats again. The GOP vote theft machine can only be dismantled by Democratic victories in statewide and state legislative races, so that genuine ballot integrity reforms can be implemented.

DemDude: see http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34157-2004Dec3.html which indicates that if the GOP attempted to suppress turnout in Demcoratic areas of Ohio they weren't very successful:

"Second myth: The Bush campaign won by mobilizing GOP strongholds and suppressing turnout in Democratic areas.

"Reality: Turnout in Democratic-leaning counties in Ohio was up 8.7 percent while turnout in Republican-leaning counties was up slightly less, at 6.3 percent. John Kerry bested Bush in Cuyahoga County (home of Cleveland) by 218,000 votes -- an increase of 42,497 over Gore's 2000 effort. In Stark County (Canton) -- a bellwether lost by Gore -- Kerry won by 4,354."

As for Diebold, how many times does it have to be pointed out that Ohio did not use Diebold's e-voting machine? (Most Ohio counties used puncchcards. A few used an older Diebold machine which does leave a paper trail.)

As I've said before, I as a Democrat am not at all despondent over this election. It's hard to beat an incumbent president in time of war, and Kerry was in some respects not the ideal candidate, yet he came close. For 2008, all we have to do is to get 1.4% of the electorate to change its mind. But we're never going to do thi if we keep trying to persuade ourselves that we don't have to because we "really" won (at least the electoral vote) anyway...

New York reported its certified election results today. With only two states (Maine and Pennsylvania, I use their Associated Press reported results) left to certify we have the following popular vote results:

Bush: 61,816,317 (50.62%)
Kerry: 58,824,880 (48.17%)
Total: 122,124,783 (turnout rate: 59.9% of voting-eligible population)

Bush’s popular vote margin is now 2,991,437 or 2.45 percentage points. In all likelihood, it will lower when Pennsylvania certifies their results tomorrow.