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Two New Polls Have Kerry Ahead by 1, Dead Heat in Florida

Kerry leads Bush by 1 point, 48-47, among Florida LVs according to a new Research 2000 poll, conducted October 18-21.

Kerry and Bush are tied at 46 percent of Florida LV's, according to a new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times Poll conducted October 19-21.


It's 7 -- and not 8 -- percent undecided. Either way, good news for Kerry!

Latex me baffled, cause I never thought Ohio would look this good for Kerry before Florida. With the 600K new Dem registered in Ohio, I thought it in Kerry's column if we're within the MOE, on election eve. Same goes for Pennsylvania.

I was feeling fairly optimistic, then I looked at Zogby this morning. The tracking poll is 48/46, but today, he writes, is the first day either candidate hit 50%, and it's Bush 50 Kerry 43. Yipes. I do trust his numbers and this is scary.

"Another good single day of polling for President Bush. In today’s sample alone, he leads 50% to 43%—the first time we’ve seen either candidate hit 50%"

The story there is obviously Bush at 46%. The last poll, Scripps, had him at 43%. Those are really, really good for Kerry.

A couple more results like this and I'll consider FL "lean Kerry."

Oct 24

Dead heat in AR!!!!!

Women, independents help Kerry erase 9-point deficit
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004

By David Robinson
Arkansas News Bureau
LITTLE ROCK - Sen. John Kerry has pulled even with President Bush in Arkansas after being down 9 points, according to a new poll for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group.

Kerry, a Democrat, and the Republican Bush each received 48 percent support from likely voters surveyed Monday through Wednesday by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock. A poll two weeks earlier gave Bush a 52 percent to 43 percent lead, just within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The 8% undecided is somewhat good news for Kerry if the conventional wisdom of 75%+- of undecided will break against incumbent. Anyone know what Florida undecided did in 2000 or earlier?

Zogby said Saturday was Bush's best day of polling, 50 to 43. Yet ABC News/WP said Saturday was Kerry's best day of polling (!), which is why Bush's lead dropped to just 1. Can someone explain this? Doesn't this kind of make tracking polls pretty dubious?

Rasmussen has the race a dead heat again today (Bush +0.4), while Zogby says Bush had another incredible polling day yesterday but still has Bush ahead only +2.

the fact that Bush is at an average of 46.5 percent in these two polls is great news. it's hard to see him getting enough of the independants to win.

Re: Florida

I've been making veteran-to-veteran calls for the Kerry/Edwards campaign in Palm Beach county and the independents and non-affiliated voters that I've reached have broken about 3-1 for Kerry.

The interesting thing is that the undecided voters are a bit on the testy side, which leads me to beleive that they are like my father: Republican-leaning, but they don't want to vote for either Bush or Kerry. When pressed about their misgivings about Kerry, they cough up discredited republican smears. The bottom line seems to be that they don't like Bush and Kerry hasn't disspelled the smears (but there were so many, how could you possibly effectively cover them all?).

Just my thoughts, your mileage may vary.