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Tracking the Tracking Polls: The Comparison to 2000

Today the TIPP tracking poll was a tie; at this time before the 2000 election, it was +5 Bush.

Today the Zogby tracking poll was a tie; at this time before the 2000 election, it was +3 Bush.

Today, the WP/ABC tracking poll (LV) was +3 Bush; at this time before the 2000 election, it was also +3 Bush...where it stayed, with a brief detour to +4, until its final poll, thereby missing the actual popular vote margin by 3.5 percentage points.

Today, the Rasmussen poll was +2 Bush; no information available on where it was at this point before the 2000 election (and it wouldn't be strictly comparable anyway, since Rasmussen has substantially changed their methodology since then), but it seems safe to say that Bush's margin was far larger--their final poll, after all, had Bush winning by 9 points.



Read this! from Bob Dole's former pollster. He has Kerry winning by 3.5 based on 2000 minority turnout numbers. I know I am seeing what I want to see, but this is good news from the dark side.

Having thought about the implications of OBM, I think Kerry had better stay on the attack despite the risks. As someone pointed out at http://www.andrewsullivan.com [funny how much more likable Sully seems these days huh?], Kerry also needs to dust off the old attack ads where Bush tells America that capturing OBL "is not that important". He needs to repeat time and again that while the U.S. is stuck in Iraq, Osama again feels comfortable enough issuing videotapes.
I know it's a bit risky and it will undoubtedly outrage conservatives -- but Kerry needs to stand firm or else his share of the "security mom vote" will erode further.