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Tracking the Tracking Polls: The Sequel

By Alan Abramowitz

Just to reinforce the point that I made in my earlier analysis of the day-to-day movements of the tracking polls this year, in the past three days the four tracking polls have produced the following changes in the margin between Bush and Kerry. A positive number means that Bush's margin increased in the past three days; a negative number means that Bush's margin decreased in the past three days.

TIPP - 5
Zogby - 3
Rasmussen + 2
WP/ABC + 5

Once again, we see that there is no consistency in the day-to-day movements of the tracking polls. While George Bush was gaining in the Rasmussen and Washington Post polls, he was slipping in the TIPP and Zogby polls. All four polls continue to show the race very tight, however, which does make sense.

So stop obsessing about the day to day movements of the tracking polls and do something useful with your time. Like canvassing, or leafletting, or phone-banking, or voting.