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Race Close and Bush under 50 in Pair of NV Polls

Bush leads Kerry 47-43 percent of Nevada LV's, according to a Sun Channel/KNPR Poll conducted 10/16-19.

Bush is ahead of Kerry 49-47 percent of Nevada LV's, according to a Reno Gazette-Journal/News 4 Poll conducted 10/19-21.

Comments

Ruy, what do you make of the Hawaii poll that has it dead even at 43%, with 10% undecided. I spend part of the year there and Hawaii's about as Democratic as it gets so its shocking. Friends in Hawaii say it's unlikely that Bush could win there, a little campaigning by Inouye for his veteran buddy Kerry is all what's needed I was told.

WOW!!!

Maine Kerry 50
Bush 49

Zogby Intl..(I know)

This will be the week of the Great Breakout


Polishing the Ann Richards Turkey Fork

Best Bumper Sticker of 2004 campaign was found in Puerto Vallarta, Mx:
"Pull the Cheney...Flush Bush"...only eight more days...hallelujah..goyo

Nevada's polls are open. I'm on my way up to work the precincts. Start the surge for Kerry!

I hope I'm not just seeing through blue-tinted glasses, but this and other recent posts seem to support the "undecideds breaking for challenger" assumption:

In both FL and NV, whichever poll finds the lower number of undecideds also has a better Kerry number. And in my home state of TN, a just-released Mason-Dixon poll -

http://tennessean.com/elections/2004/archives/04/09/60256115.shtml?Element_ID=60256115

- shows Kerry going from 16 points down to 12 down, *exactly* matching a 4-point decrease in undecideds from a month ago. I don't hold out much hope for TN, but if this kind of evidence continues to mount, we may be in for some very pleasant surprises wherever Bush is at 49% or less.

And from this perspective the 43-43 "tie" in Hawaii is nothing to lose sleep over--unless of course you can use your insomnia to make GOTV calls to an appropriate time zone.

The two Nevada polls are encouraging, as are Rasmussen's statewide polls for Michigan and Iowa. Also, Rasmussen shows Bush and Kerry separated by less than 1/2%. The ABC tracking poll now has Bush up by a mere 1%, while stating that Kerry had his best day of polling yesterday (Saturday) since October 2nd. That conflicts with Zogby who reports that on Saturday Bush reached 50% for the first time, with Kerry at 43%. Confusing, isn't it? I think that this wide disparity in the polls reflects the fact that Kerry has large undereported support among young voters who 1) have only a cell phone, or 2) are more likely to be unavailable when surveyers call. I firmly believe that the nation will be surprised when this previously unheard from block of voters flock to the polls in record numbers.

WaPo tracking poll just out shows Bush margin over Kerry by 1%--down from 4% yesterday. (But another Hawaii poll shows Bush up one point). T.J.

Please help me to understand. In the individual state
polls. If Bush is leading (by whatever margin), then
what differance does it make if he is below 50 ?

Regarding Steve's question above, on election day undecided voters historically tend to vote 2 to 1 for the challenger (sometimes 3 to 1) so what you tend to see is a late movement for the challenger compared to the final polls.

The net effect of all this is that the incumbent's actual poll number (Bush) reflects his ceiling, the max he can get, where as the challenger's real number will be much higher than his current polling.

So where Bush is below 50% he is likely to be overtaken by the late surge for Kerry (according to the rule of thumb)