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No Further Comment Necessary Department

"They're the ones I pay attention to"

--Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief campaign strategist, on Gallup relative to other polling organizations, quoted in today's New York Times


Would anyone take that comment seriously? I have a hunch he is just saying that because Bush is up in the Gallup.


Well, I suppose that's good news for us.

Zogby has Bush with an approval rating of 44-46 %. Historically, this is bad news for the incumbent at this time. My hopeful hunch is that this election will mimic that of 1980. Carter and Reagan were in a close race, Carter had low approval ratings, and the undecideds did not turn until the last weekend. Watching the daily Zogby tracking polls - they don't move much - I see the same thing happening. The polls will move Kerry's way, but not until the last weekend. Karl Rove believes that Bush must be up by 4 points going into the last weekend in order to win. Historical trends are probably the best predictors at this point.

Wouldn't surprise me: it fits the Administration's delusional and sanguine view of the world and this election that runs contrary to reality. If you will New Jersey in play, it can be so!

Let them go by Gallup! They did in 2000 and that's why Bush and Rove were walking around like two peacocks as if they had already won. They slowed down campaigning at the end as well. I am afraid they are smarter this time but I truly wish they would believe the Gallup numbers for then there is absolutely no need for an October surprise since they have already won -- right?

This is not the first time that Republicans have cited Gallup as the authority. Dailykos has a broadcast e-mail from the Republicans that also relies on Gallup. Remember that Gallup is still building its models based upon the assumption of low turnout: 50-55%. This means that they take for granted a wildly successful suppression of the vote.

Must be "faith-based" polling . . .

We can overthink this, or we can take it at face value. Either way

1. It's a dodge

2. It's true, because he's complimenting Gallup on its work.

3. It's true, because he believes it.

If it's #3 then I'm thrilled, because the BC'04 campaign will feel great about an oversampled GOP poll, not a real reflection of actual voter thought (remembering of course the last Gallup poll before Election Day 2000....)

Given the wide discrepancies in LV and RV results we've seen, and how much the LV polls differed from the actual result in 2000, is anyone prepared yet to state as a general principle either that: (a) Bush's supporters consistently overstate their enthusiasm for their candidate to pollsters; or (b) that Democrats tend to understate their enthusiasm?

The polls are encouraging one day, discouraging the next. Thanks, Tex, for at least trying to make some sense of it all.

It may come down to the ground game, after all. Especially to those of you in swing states.......call your local Dem HQ and volunteer some time. Most still need more people to work in a GOTV (Get out the vote) effort on Nov. 2.

makes sense given the administration's adversion tofacts and insistence on "faith-based" approaches to the creation of their own realities (see kevin Drum).

The other possibility, of course, is that maybe Dowd knows that the wheels are in motion for electronic theft of the election results, a possibility that scares the bejeezus out of me and one that I'm not convinced is being sufficiently managed by the DNC and the Kerry Camp.

I really wish Kerry had made a strong statement warning the republicans against election fraud. Perhaps he will do so before the election. Let's hopeand pray for America's sake that the election is clean.