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New Polls Have Kerry Ahead in OH, PA, IA, Lagging in FL

New LA Times Polls, conducted 10/22-26 provide the following results for RV's in 3 key states:

Florida - Bush leads 49-41 percent, 3 percent for Nader.
Ohio - Kerry ahead 49-45 percent in 2-way matchup.
Pennsylvania - Kerry up 48-45 percent head-to-head.

Kerry leads Bush among PA RV's 49-46 percent in a Gallup Poll conducted 10/23-6.

Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Iowa RV's in a Gallup Poll conducted 10/22-25.

Comments

What are the internals on that Florida poll? Strange that a CBS poll showing Kerry up 9 in Florida is suppressed while a Gallup and LA Times poll showing Bush up 9 is published. Both are equally wrong - Florida is ties and turnout will determine the winner.

Have you heard anything more about the supposed CBS/NY Times Florida poll (discussed on both MyDD and Atrios on Wednesday) that had Kerry up by 8 or 9 and was returned for further investigation due to the "implausibility" of this scenario. (A further version of this rumor was that the new, adjusted results still had Kerry up 4 ... but there's been nothing yet released.)

Transparency International publishes a Corruption Perception Index for countries. It may be worthwhile to publish something similar for state election processes. Consider: very few people are fretting at the moment about transparency or reliability of voting in Utah or Maine. The idea of 60,000 absentee ballots vanishing is almost inconceivable. In Florida or Ohio, on the other hand, the lack of transparency and likelihood of hanky-panky is practically a given. In worst-case situations, like voting in the Soviet Union, the certainty of the vote rises to 100% and the trustworthiness of the vote as a measure of actual voter desires approaches zero.

Is there a statistical methodology that can be applied in addition to standard polls that would anticipate for fraud? Or at least, like in moral hazard questions, quantify the susceptibility of particular voting arrangements to abuse?

absentee ballot link= http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6346293/

If Gallop has Kerry leading in PA by 2 and in Iowa by 1, then he must really be up by 5 or 6, judging by their previous accuracy.

Kerry in a Landslide!

I'm starting to think the polls are even more UNreliable than I first thought... Great piece in the WP today... Refusals, caller ID, etc. are making it incredibly difficult to actually reach a random sample of Americans...According to the story, "less than one in five calls produces a completed interview -- raising doubts whether such polls accurately reflect the views of the public or merely report the opinions of stay-at-home Americans who are too bored, too infirm or too lonely to hang up..."

I personally don't believe the LA Times poll on Florida, nor do I believe the alleged 9-point lead for Kerry from the suppressed CBS survey (a 4-point lead for Kerry seems reasonable, though a bit high on the Kerry side.) Both results seem implausible (though of course either could be right.), so why not release all the polls? We politically knowledgeable folks can sift through them and root out the clearly wrong-looking ones. Unfortunately, the media doesn't always do the same (Exhibit A: Gallup.)

Incidentally, I read that Kerry's lead among likely voters in the LAT's Ohio poll was 6 points, larger than the RV margin. In fact, that also seems too large to be believed.

Thanks, Ruy, for this and Memory Lane.
It does much to lighten the burden of an oppressed and lifelong Dem.

What meaning, if any, can be ascribed to Novak's (i.e., Rovian) claim today (see excerpt) that Zogby is now essentially calling the race for Bush based on the latter's current read of the polls?

WASHINGTON -- Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.

That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.

10,000 Voters in PA just had their polls moved. And they don't know.

The Republican Board of Elections in Lackawanna County just changed voting locations for 21 precincts.

And the voters don't know.

10 to 15,000 PA voters could show up at their regular polls, find them closed, and not know where to vote.

It's Friday before election day and postcards announcing the change won't be in the mail until tonight. What if they don't arrive? Or don't get read? One smallish ad is running on Saturday in one local paper. What if no one notices?

The Democrats are organizing a volunteer effort for people to stand at the old polls and give directions to the new. But the polls are open in PA from 7am to 8pm. It's 21 precincts. They need a lot of people.

But this is easy, significant GOTV for people who were uncomfortable with traditional doorbell ringing or phone calling. All you have to do is stand there and give directions.

Scranton PA is only 90 minutes from NYC.

To help, e-mail AlanEGross@aol.com or Calyndha@aol.com. Put "POLL GOTV" in the subject line.