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New Gallup Poll Shows Progress for Kerry, Weakness for Bush

Alan Abramowitz writes:

John Kerry leads George Bush by 49 to 48 percent among likely voters in a new Gallup poll. Other key findings: Bush's approval rating has fallen to 47 percent, another sign of danger for the incumbent, and respondents in the poll chose Kerry as the winner of the second debate by a decisive margin of 45 to 30 percent.


Any internals on that bad boy?

What's the partisan breakdown? Has Gallup made its sample more balanced or is it still oversampling Republicans?

Does anyone know the D/R/I breakdown in this poll?

Has Gallup changed its methodology at all? Are they still over-sampling republicans?

What were the internals? Have they stopped oversampling Reublicans? It is hard to trust their work after the early September fiascos.

Is the weighting still biased towards the GOP in this poll? If so, that's very good news for Kerry to be ahead.

Does anyone know the DEM/REP breakdown in Gallup's sample? I couldn't find this information on the Gallup website. This would be really great news if this poll oversampled Republicans like previous Gallup polls.

Just to note, I am fairly sure that Gallup only provides LV numbers in USA today, so this poll is consistent with their other polls.

Still waiting for a more detailed methodology though.

The best I can remember, Gallup only uses LVs in regards to USA today so this poll should be consistent with other USA Today polls. Still waiting for a more exact methodology on this.

you would think that Gallup, given the controversy about party breakdown, would have mentioned that in the poll, given that it had several pages of information on the web. It would only take two extra lines of type, eh?

And what IS all this about Bush wearing a wire at the first debate (not that it's likely to influence the election. Now, if he'd WON it ... . Maybe he was making faces at what he heard over the wire. As a credential venue tappee, I can sympathize, but not with Bush overall.

This is one of the very best articles I have read yet on the
overall situation in Iraq under US occupation:

This short blurb is interesting regarding the possibility of a
draft. Especially note the poll suggesting that by a 51% to 31%
margin, the military personnel polled in Iraq do not expect to re-
enlist when their duty is up.

Although I suspect that further debate on Iraq between the candidates will be less of a central focus as the economy and deficit (and Republiquenne protestations about 'taxes on the middle class' when their policies cause state and local taxes to eat up most middle class taxpayers' tax cuts over time) come into central focus, the DRAFT issue will be very big for certain segments of the population. ONE JAB about high unemployment making military recruitment easier might really make Bush get all peeved up in the third debate .....[Just a thought]

I've got the internals on the latest Gallup/CNN/USAT poll over on my site, and I have sent them to Ruy as well. Yes, Gallup resumed a 2-4% GOP advantage in their samples, and Kerry still made up ground on Bush.

Rasmussen's Bush lead has shrunk to 1%.