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New Gallup Poll Shows Movement Toward Kerry

The new Gallup poll shows the race moving in Kerry's direction. In their last poll, October 14-16, they showed Bush with a 4 point lead, 50-46 in their 2-way RV matchup. This poll, conducted October 22-24, has Bush's lead shrinking to a single point (49-48).

Even Gallup's bogus LV sample has Bush's lead shrinking from its outlandish 8 points in the previous poll to a merely unbelievable 5 points in the current poll. (Of course, USA Today--shame on them!--leads with and heavily emphasizes the LV results in their story on the new poll.)

Subgroup analysis of the Gallup RV data shows several patterns very favorable to the Kerry campaign:

1. Kerry leads among independents by 5, 49-44.

2. Kerry leads among moderates by 18, 57-35.

3. Kerry leads in the battleground states by 2, 49-47, and Bush's approval rating in these same states has sunk to 46 percent.

On to November 2.

Comments

What's up with Zogby? Are they still weighting according to 2000 exit polls (democrat advantage in sample)? If so, shouldn't their current numbers be cause for concern?

Sometimes poll respondents are reluctant to express their true opinion.

1) They are talking to a stranger who may not be a legitimate pollster. Few people have heard of more than a few of the 20+ national polling organizations.

2) There may be someone else in the room listening, a person not sharing their opinion.

3) There is a reluctance to "go negative" on an an incumbent President. Especially if one is uncertain about who is calling.

In most urban areas. It is easy to acknowledge support of Democrats, even Nader. But in a suburban or rural community, it can invite unwanted attention if supporting anyone other than the Republicans.

The ballot is secret, but in telephone polling, Democrat support may be understated.

Both Kerry and Castor pull ahead in Florida.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Gallup?

I call them Foul-up.

They're doing the same thing they did four years ago. They're showing Bush up, but they will close it to 2-3 points in a week and act like that makes up for bogus reports the past 3 months.

I have the same concerns as chillmoth. Gallup is one thing, but Zogby is a more reliable organization, and they have Bush pulling ahead. Is there any reason not to be troubled by this, aside from the 50% rule which Zogby says might not be in play this year?

What's up with Zogby? Are they still weighting according to 2000 exit polls (democrat advantage in sample)? If so, shouldn't their current numbers be cause for concern?
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thats what i thought but then i looked up the 2000 poll of 9 days before the election and it showed the same 3 point bush lead that we see now.
It doesnt mean anything, its all within the margin of error.

I am scratching my head over some of the internals on the recentl polls. Zogby has Bush
leading among Independents by 12%. CBS
and Gallup according to this latest poll have
Kerry up by 5% by Independents. The only
explanation I can think of for this anamoly is
sampling error or respondents are making up
answers to all of the poll calls. They must be
getting tired of the calls. I am a political junkie
and I am growing wearing of these polls

What was the party ID breakdown? Steve Soto has a post up, and says that Ruy Teixeira contacted him with a correction of sorts, but Soto doesn't explain what the correction is. Can Mr. Teixeira clue us in? (Soto, at "The LEft Coaster," has a post up saying Gallup's party IDs are even worse than before, but then has an update -- based on Teixeira -- which seems to question his own post.)

Zogby posted their one day results for Friday and Saturday nights. Bush took Friday 49-46, Bush also took Saturday 50-43. However, the three day rolling average for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday has Bush up 48-45. This means that Kerry took Sunday 46-45. Let's give the poll at least two more days to flush the 49 and 50 out of the rolling average. Then we'll see how good the President-select is doing.

Btw, WP has Kerry up 49-48 and Rasmussen has Kerry up 48-46. Gallup has Bush up by only 1 point among registered voters, with Kerry up by 2 in the Battleground States.

As Steve Soto points out at the Left Coaster, this is actually even better news than it seems. The internals of the current Gallup sample show that it is even more biased in favor of Republicans, but yet Bush's lead went down! More Republicans, less support! Yow, that's gotta hurt.

I think Ruy posted below about the volatility of the daily tracking polls and how they can have wild swings. If that's what you mean, scroll down.

I'm guessing we'll see a post from Ruy about this soon:

Once again, Steve Soto has the goods on the Gallup Poll. This week's sample is even MORE skewed toward Republicans than last week's yet Bush loses 3 points of his 8-point (mythical) lead.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003100.html

Evidently Zogby had a very weird polling day for Bush on Saturday. On that day, Bush had a 7 point lead. It's a clear outlier, because no other poll is showing this type of movement in either direction. However, Zogby has also said that in the Sunday poll, Kerry was up by two points. Friday numbers will be dropped off tomorrow, so I would expect the 3% margin to either remain the same or decrease slighly. On Wednesday, though, you will see a much bigger movement towards Kerry.

ABC, Washington Post and Rasmussen all have Kerry UP in the race as of Monday.

I'd call that a good trend.

Bush's team knows they are in trouble, which is why they are focusing on getting out their base and suppressing vote. They know they need to get all their people out AND stop Kerry voters by the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

This isn't about polls but is about post election strategy. I'm a lawyer and have done voting rights for 30 years. I have little confidence in the courts to handle the election contests in a non-partisan way. For simplicity imagine a repeat of 2000; massive voter suppression, court challenges, court rulings on partisan lines with incredible opinions. Then what? Like last time, Democrats fold up their tents and say nice non-partisan unfifying things and turn our democracy over to the anti-democracy party for four more years? Follow John Lewis to a sit-in in Washington?

I don't think you can trust these "tracking" polls. They're conducted in a way that maximizes efficiency, not robust sampling. In order to reach a desirable number of completes, they simply burn through sample, meaning that they don't make callbacks to numbers that do not answer. This greatly increases non-response bias and representativeness.

Can someone explain why--as repeatedly reported-- if Kerry leads among independents, moderates, new voters, young voters, women voters, etc, Bush has any lead at all? Aside from men voters, where is Bush's support coming from? Thanks!