« Kerry Leads by 6 in Maine | Main | Economist/YouGov Poll: Kerry Up by 2 »

NBC News/Wall St. Journal Poll: Kerry Lags by 2%

Bush leads Kerry 48-46 percent of nation-wide RV's, with 2 percent for Nader in NBC News/Wall St. Journal Poll conducted 10-16-18 by Hart McInturff. (MoE +/- 3.1%)

Comments

Ruy,

I have a question about this:

"Yet one piece of good news for Bush is a change in attitude on Iraq. According to the poll 46 percent of respondents say they are more confident that the war there will come to a successful conclusion, while 41 percent say they are less confident. That's a noticeable shift from September, when only 37 percent said they were more confident about success in Iraq vs. 53 percent who said they were less confident."

The inference here is that those who support the war or are optimistic about it also support Bush, but does that necessarily follow? Couldn't some of the uptick be due to voters who believe Kerry offers us a better chance at success? Can you dig this out of the internals, or do the specific questions asked shed any light?

I'm not buying that people are suddenly thinking Bush can pull a rabbit out of a hat - or his ass. Particularly not after falling down in three debates.

One interesting result was that in here the LV sample was slightly better for Kerry than the RV's (the candidates were precisely tied among LV's with 48 percent each.) That is not statistically significant, but still worth mentioning on its face. At least we're being consistent by putting up the RV results even when the LV's look better for Democrats.