« Analysis of Zogby State Tracking Polls | Main | About the Final Pew Poll »

National Tracking Poll Roundup

Today's tracking polls show more a mixed bag than yesterday in terms of movement favoring Bush or Kerry--which is the typical pattern, as Alan Abramowitz has noted. (You can find all the relevant data and links at NowChannel.com.)

Here are today's results:

WaPo LV: 48-48 tie, from 49-48 Bush yesterday
WaPo RV: 48-47 Kerry, unchanged from 48-47 Kerry yesterday
Fox 3way LV: 46-46 tie, from 47-45 Bush yesterday
Fox 3way RV: 47-45 Kerry, from 46-46 tie yesterday
Zogby: 48-48 tie from 47-46 Kerry lead yesterday
Rasmussen: 48.1-47.1 Bush, from 47.9-47.1 Bush yesterday
TIPP 3way LV: 48-43 Bush, from 46-44 Bush yesterday

Note: over last two days, WaPo and Fox have moved steadily toward Kerry; TIPP steadily toward Bush.

Note: Today's WaPo RV result makes 6 out of 7 days that Kerry has been ahead in their RV sample.

Note: At this stage of the election in 2000, Bush was ahead of Gore by 2 points in the Zogby tracking poll, by 4 points in the ABC/WP tracking poll and by 9 points in the TIPP tracking poll.

Note: All the polls, save TIPP, imply something very close to a dead heat. Chris Bowers of MyDD has a good analysis today of how such a result, if correct, fundamentally favors Kerry.

Comments

CBS poll tonight Bush 49, Kerry 46 which is not so alarming, but among those who have voted already, broken down 1/3 each D, R, I, 51 Bush, 43 Kerry. That can't be good news. Doesn't that mean independents are breaking for Bush?

Quick question....

I saw the CBS poll but they only have LVs posted...Do you have access to their RV numbers?

I hope the democrats spend the last day on the attack.

They have really seemed defensive ever since the tape came out.