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Latest Democracy Corps Survey Shows Kerry Up By Two Nationwide and Leading 52-45 in Battleground States.

The latest Democracy Corps survey, conducted Oct 23-25 Shows John Kerry leading George Bush 49-47 in their national sample and 52-45 in the battleground states. The poll also found that Kerry is ahead by 22 pts among new voters and includes substantial additional information on the latest trends among population subgroups and target voters.

Comments

Zogby has Bush up by 3 nationwide and also ahead in most of the battleground states...The brief lead Kerry had in the Rasmussen poll is gone and it is a dead heat again. Boy, I sure hope that all the good polls are the ones listed on EDM, but I can't help but be a little nervous at this point. At least EDM gives me some hope though!

Personally, I find the "battleground states" polls unenlightening.

America does not elect presidents nationally; it elects them on a state-by-state basis through the Electoral College. As we learned in 2000, it does not matter if a candidate racks up big vote-margins in one state (and win the national vote), only to lose a couple of others by mere handfuls and therefore lose the EC.

Subsequently, I honestly don't care if John Kerry is building up a big vote-total in all 15 battleground states. Does this mean Kerry is doing well in all 15 battlegrounds? Or does it mean Oregon has gone whole-hog for Kerry while Kerry is losing the rest?

You can't tell. Therefore, these polls are completely uninformative to me, and don't give me any strategic information whatsoever.

I wish polling firms would stop doing them, and either do state-by-state polls which would give us real data by which to predict EC outcomes, or divert the resources to states (like Arkansas) which are seeing little polling but which might just well be coming into play (as the last Arkansas poll indicated).

Do we know what Demo Corps. considers battlegrounds still? If it's the entire 16 or so that originally existed (including WA, OR, etc), then this is not surprising or exciting.

Numbers that would be meaningful at this point should essentially be confined to PA, FL, OH, IA, WI, MN, NM, NV and possibly AR and CO. If these numbers include OR and WA and perhaps some others, then these aren't that useful, since OR and WA will obviously inflate Kerry's numbers since these are barely battlegrounds now. In fact, I'd argue that we could take PA off the list too to get a really good number of how Kerry is doing.

Here's hoping that similar numbers exist for the states I mentioned.

-Jeff

To Ruy and staff .... thanks a bunch! Many are greatful for your efforts. Including me.

Is it possible to give us some feedback on early voting? Either turnout or exit polling, or anything concrete? Anything more concrete on election turnout in general?


Again, thanks.

Kudos, commendations, and additional crown jewels to Ruy for being the best Donkey Rising, hands down, thumbs up!!

According to ABC (Noted Now) both campaigns are now putting resources into Hawaii, which seems to be genuinely in play. That is really not a good thing.

"The American Conservative" magazine has published an articulate and persuasive article that should be a MUST read for undecideds i.e. conservative Republicans and independents.

Kerry’s the One
http://www.amconmag.com/2004_11_08/cover1.html

"George W. Bush has come to embody a politics that is antithetical to almost any kind of thoughtful conservatism. This election is all about George W. Bush, and those issues are enough to render him unworthy of any conservative support".

WHY KERRY WILL WIN...

Many conservative and moderate Republicans and independents are turned off or horrified by another Bush term of domestic failures, fiscal irresponsiblity, belligerent Christian conservatism, and messianic interventionism abroad.

Take these folks plus the solid Dem base including new/undercounted Dem voters ( esp. 18-29 yrs ) and you get a Kerry victory.

probably Kerry

Wisconsin
New Mexico
Nevada
Florida
Ohio
Arkansas
Minnesota
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Oregon
New Hampshire


probably Bush

Colorado
Missouri
West Virginia
Virginia
Tennessee

Kerry is going to win BIG.

I'm not sure, looking at the polls tonight most of which show Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada as pretty firmly Bush, where you find the information that those states will go to Kerry. Is it the potential for Democratic turnout, or some way of reading polling that I'm not doing? I'd love to believe with you, but I really think it is totally up in the air right now.

Also, no one addressed a question I had posted earlier--why is the voting that's been done already showing a Repub lead? Any information on patterns, where people are voting early, which groups are?

Can anyone tell me a poll on how many 2000 bush supporters are not voting for him this time. Are the polls weighted in such a way that fails to this into account. There are many who simply will not vote for him this time. There are some who may not vote for Kerry but they are definitely not voting for Bush. This seems like it would be a significant thing to know.

Mady,
Steve Soto at Left Coast has an analysis of early voters and it's great for Kerry. Typically, early voters are elderly women in western states (most early voting states are in the West) - and trend heavily Republican. I believe Bush beat Gore among early voters in 2000 by 55-44 or something. So if Bush only leads by 4 now among early voters (and with a sample size of 170 voters anyway) then Bush is doing poorly.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/

Also, a new Gallup poll (yes, Gallup) shows Kerry up 1 in Iowa. I have less confidence about Nevada but with OH and FL Nevada doesn't matter.

Zogby's rolling tracking is showing a Bush lead on the basis of one day's result having Bush +7. He's up 3 which means the other days in the survey have to net a +4 to Kerry. Once that Bush +7 drops out in 2 days, it will be back where it was most likely.

I don't know what's going on with Tipp.
WaPo seems to be going Kerry's way as is Rasmussen a bit (It was B+3) last week. So things are looking better.
Mady: There's nothing addressing an analysis of the early votes that I know of. Are California and New York having early voting this year? I know many of the Southern States do and some of the northern states do not. Could that be the discrepancy? Also, I don't know if that figure is an estimate based on exit polling, or an actual count.

In the state polls, Race.com has taken PA, NH, NJ, ME from undecided to Weak Kerry.

Mady: I checked most of the recent polls in WI. They're mostly from SV, a republican outfit. I'll wait for some more credible polls there.

Same is true of Iowa.

Looking at today's state polls, I think Wisconsin is up for grabs, while Iowa seems to lean slightly--but not irrecoverably--to Bush. Giving Nevada and especially Arkansas to Kerry seems a little overoptimistic, but not impossible. Probably the most important--Florida and Ohio--are split down the middle (if you discount what I hope is the out-of-whack Gallup result in Florida), with new polls divided on who is ahead, usually within the margin of error.

I think general polls of battleground states weight their sample so that more people are sampled from the largest states, with many more Floridians than Oregonians, for instance. But the samples from each state are almost certainly too small to reliably extrapolate results from individual states.

Mady-

Yesterday afternoon, I looked at all polls with post dates of October at race2004.net. I excluded those with either a GOP or Dem designation. I used 3 way data, if available, when Nader was on the ballot, 2 way data, if available, when Nader was not on the ballot. If a given organization did more than one poll, I used the most recent.

Of the 11 polls in Florida, 4 had Kerry in the lead, 4 Bush, 3 tied. The unweighted (by sample size) average was Bush up by 0.5%.

Of the 11 polls in Ohio, 7 had Kerry in the lead, 4 had Bush in the lead. The average was Kerry up .8%

Of the 7 polls in Wisconsin, 2 had Kerry in the lead, 3 Bush, and 2 were dead ties. The average was dead even.

Of the 8 polls in Iowa, 2 had Kerry up, 5 Bush, with 1 tie, average Bush lead of 2%.

Of the 5 in New Mexico, 2 had Kerry up, 3 Bush, average Bush lead of 2%.

Of the 4 in Minnesota, 2 had Kerry up, 2 Bush, with an average Kerry lead of 0.75%.

Of the 9 in New Hampshire, 6 had Kerry up, 3 Bush, with an average Kerry lead of 3%.

So...each of those polls has both sides winning some of the time this past month. It's hard for me to think of any of them as solid. And Wisconsin is probably the least solid of any of them.

Those 7 seem the key battlegrounds now, with the possibility of an Arkansas or Hawaii creeping in.

[Others states for which at least one independent poll has shown both both sides in the lead of at least 1% at some point last month, using only the most recent poll from the organization...:

Colorado, Bush 5, Kerry 1
Oregon, Kerry 7, Bush 1

That's it. Hawaii, Arkansas, Michigan, New Jersey, and Nevada seem to have been close here or there...]

If all but the 7 listed above are considered solid, you're looking at 228 EV's for Kerry, 227 for Bush. Kerry can get the other 42 with Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and either Florida, Wisconsin, or [Iowa and New Mexico].