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Latest ARG Polls: Kerry Leading By 3% in Florida, 2% In Ohio, 3% in Pennsylvania.

The latest polls from the American Research Group, conducted October 23-25, show John Kerry ahead in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Earlier ARG surveys also showed Kerry ahead in New Mexico and Oregon and tied in Wisconsin and Iowa. The complete ARG results are shown below.

 BushKerryNaderDKOct
Florida46%49%1%4%23-25
Ohio47%49%*4%23-25
Pennsylvania47%50%*3%23-25
Wisconsin47%47%2%4%16-19
New Mexico46%48%1%5%16-18
New Hampshire47%46%1%6%16-18
Oregon44%49%2%5%9-12
Iowa47%47%2%4%10-12
* Ralph Nader is not on the ballot

Comments

Its our race to lose! Bush's prevarications are starting to catch up to him. I have been reading the probabilistic polling sites and it clearly is trending to Kerry. GOTV!

In Nicollet County MN they have sent out over 900 absentee ballots. That is over 10% of the registered voter base. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that MN will have over 80% turnout this cycle.

Bush is polling 46-47% in all these battlegrounds. If these numbers are true and the incumbent rule holds, Bush is toast.

But note that Zogby and Rasmussen have said that late deciders are going for Bush, contrary to the incumbent rule and apparently contrary to the numbers we are seeing. I don't buy this "coming home to Bush" theory for a second, and the sample sizes for this subgroup of late deciders is very small (e.g. large margin of error). Plus all the national polls (and some tracking polls) are showing late movement to Kerry.

Six more days.

Nader is off the ballot in Oregon, too.

To Editor:

There's a lot of talk of the "incumbent rule", so I created a little tool that adjusts poll numbers using this rule. (you can adjust the sway rate). It helps me determine if Kerry is in range given this "rule"

http://www.strafaci.com/poll.html

Also, people feel these polls typically leave out a lot of key groups (i.e. cell phone users, college students, etc). So if Kerry is behind, the tool will determine how many of these new voters are needed to give Kerry the win (the rate at which they vote is adjustable).

If you think this is useful, feel free to use this html. It's simple and is one page long. I can modify it if you have some feedback as well.

http://www.strafaci.com/poll.html