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Kerry's Lead Among Independents Makes Bush's Situation Extremely Dire

By Alan Abramowitz

No Republican in the modern era has won a presidential election without carrying the independent vote. In the 2000 election, despite losing the national popular vote, George Bush led Al Gore by a narrow margin among independent voters. However, according to the final, supersized Gallup Poll, John Kerry now has an 8 point lead over George Bush among independent voters. In fact, Kerry led Bush among independents in all four Gallup polls this month--by an average of 6 points. This is one more piece of evidence that George Bush's situation is extremely dire.

Comments

Will someone please explain to me how Kerry can be so far ahead among independents, with Democrats apparently shored up, and yet he's tied with Bush nationally? I find this to be extremely perplexing.

How can we trust Gallup now with information that is positive for us, when we did not when his information seemed unbelievable? I think you can't just pick and choose the polls that work for you at the moment. Anxiety and a grain of salt will be called for until this thing is over.

I'm so glad Tuesday is it.

With fingers and toes crossed.

Mady

hey ruy.

what do you make of the new cnn gallup poll that has kerry leading likely and registered voters in florida, minnesota, and ohio?

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/allpolitics/0410/poll.10.31/content.1.html

while losing pennsylvania?


http://www.cnn.com/interactive/allpolitics/0410/poll.10.31/content.5.html

"Will someone please explain to me how Kerry can be so far ahead among independents, with Democrats apparently shored up, and yet he's tied with Bush nationally?"

Educated guess:

1. Bush has maybe 92% among GOPers and Kerry has maybe 89% among democrats. Many southern states have many voters who are democrats in name only. Oklahoma has more than 50% of voters registered as democrats. So 89% is about as good as it will ever get.

Generally, this effect will even out because there are about 3-5% higher turnout among dems.

2.More likely than not Republicans are oversampled, and independents and democrats are still somewhat undersampled?