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Kerry Takes Lead in New Florida Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 48.3-46.7 among Florida LV's, with 1.5 percent for Ralph Nader, according to a Florida Opinion Poll conducted 10/23-7 by New York Times Regional Newspapers. The poll also found that Kerry leads Bush among Florida Independents 48-40 percent.


I don't know whether there has been much discussion of the nonsense from Fox News Opinion Dynamics this election season. But check out their latest poll for marginals by party ID. There is little difference in the loyalty of respective partisans for their candidate. Independents split 44-43 for Bush. And then they claim a 50-45 lead for Bush??

Hmm! These results could only have come from a LV sample which favored Republicans by 4%. Substitute the partisan breakdown of the 2000 Election (which may well be kind to the GOP) and you've got Kerry winning by 49-46.

Maybe we ought to say it this way: The Marginals of Fox News Opinion Dynamics shows Kerry with a 3 point lead!

As for Florida, it promises be Kerry by 1.5 points and possibly a bit more.

Now I assume that the "New York Times Regional Newspapers" poll is different than the much-discussed-earlier-this-week but never published CBS/NY Times poll. That number among independents is very, very encouraging and is in direct contrast to the findings of the LA Times poll (which, as Steve Soto of the Left Coaster demonstrated, "Galluped" its results -- i.e. overweighted Republicans within its sample). Add to this the poll of Miami-Dade showing Kerry doing even better than Gore and things are looking very good down there.