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Kerry Leads in NH, PA, MN, Tied in NV, Down 4 in VA

Bush leads Kerry 51-47 percent of Virginia LV's, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/27-9.

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 49 percent of Nevada LV's, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/28-9.

John Kerry leads George Bush 49-46 percent of New Hampshire LV's, according to a Concord Monitor Poll conducted 10/26-28.

Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Pennsylvania LV's, according to a Temple/Inquirer Poll conducted 10/22-7.

Kerry leads Bush 49-41 percent of Minnesota LV's, according to a Star-Tribune Poll conducted 10/26-9.

Comments

Tennessee going Kerry??

from diarist at dkos

Huge Early Vote Numbers to support anecdotal analysis, concluding a small 29000 vote margin in favor of Kerry -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/30/45946/384

worth some independent verification

VA has 3 groups who have lost out under Bush:
1) Techies who lost jobs under 2001 recession and failed to get jobs to due to outsourcing 2003-4.

2) Federal workers-who are under the threat of privitazation which is French for getting fired.

3) Military and ex-military types-they are angry at the are in Iraq.

These numbers are making me feel better. The Osama tape made me wonder which way people would go. It seems to me the public should begin to realize if Bush can't protect us from the flu, how can he protect us from terrorists.

I also wonder how people wil feel when they hear that Osama believed only the first plane would be successful. Many possibly died because Bush sat in a chair looking like a deer in the headlights.

If Virginia goes for Kerry, the race is over. I don't think it will so I discount that particular poll. I live in New Hampshire, where in the latest Concord Monitor poll, Kerry leads 49-46. However the Monitor is skewered left with it's opinion pieces, so I call it to close to call. The battleground states will be New Hampshire, Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Michigan. Kerry will have to win Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota to get in if Bush wins the rest. My final electoral vote gives Kerry 280, Bush 258. However, I can see Bush getting as much as 290 votes if some states break his way. Bottom line, it is WAY TO CLOSE TO CALL. Have your rolaids at the ready and get on board for the ride. It's going to be either a fun ride if you candidate wins, or a total bummer if he loses.

I'm from North Dakota....a supposedly solid red state...but the wolf commercial is running here---both on radio and TV. Seems like a waste of money to spend in a traditional red state with few electoral votes????? Makes me wonder what their polls are showing.

The selection of that commercial also seems bizarre....this is a rural gun state and we aren't afraid of wildlife or trees.

Another note: Listening to sunday morning services on TV (from Aberdeen, Tom Daschel's hometown) they were saying things like "I won't say it's a sin not to vote, but it is a Christian responsibility). More bizarro world. This isn't an evangelical area. It's religious, but established religion.

On MPR,
Minnesota Poll calls it for Kerry
Mason Dixon calls it close....
I think Kerry will ultimately win in MN but I anticiapte a long night

You're cherrypicking polls in Minnesota. Yes, the Star Tribune poll showed Kerry up by nine points, but a Pioneer Press poll also released today showed Bush up by a point, 48-47. Here's the link (must register):
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/politics/10058538.htm

Don't know which is right but the Star Tribune poll has overestimated Democratic support in recent elections.