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Kerry Leads by 4 in New FL Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-44 percent of Florida RV's, according to a new Florida Insider Poll conducted 10/12-14 --- a 7 point gain over the previous Insider poll taken just before the 3rd presidential debate.

Comments

This poll is particularly encouraging, partly because Insider pollster Matt Towery is a Republican. The analysis argues compellingly that health care reform gives Kerry serious traction with seniors, who have the highest turnout rates. I hope the Dem campaign takes note and runs strong health care reform ads in OH, PA and MO, as well as FL.

Furthermore, Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. More so than other pollsters, Strategic Vision show stronger support for Bush. Yet even they say that Kerry picked up many points in Ohio, Wisconsin etc

Speaking of seniors in the swing states, there are huge numbers of "snow birds" who travel between FL and the northern swing states of OH, PA, MO and WI. And many of them have children who are aware of the health care problem.

It makes sense that Rove wants to keep inserting distractions like Mary Cheney in order to prevent focus from resting too long on any substantive issues.

I guess we should expect that on October 27 there will be a "terror alert".

It's been noted on another thread already, but the Washington Post poll (ending Oct. 10) shows a tie, both in LV and RV in Florida.

This is all great news to me. In my heart, I think I'd started to concede Florida to Bush. Having it in play is huge. Assuming Kerry gets Pennsylvania (and I saw one report that Bush was pulling out of there to focus on Ohio and Florida), then either Ohio or Florida would likely be enough to put him over the top. It gets a bit tricky with other states, but it would look awfully good. I'm very excited about having two big targets to pursue instead of just one.

TERROR ... Oct.27 .... I'm not afraid of no stinkin terror, I have a handy supply of duck tape & plastic

Altough this post is not about polling I felt it was an important read in attracting conservative swing Republicans.

"The conservative case for Kerry "
Clyde Prestowitz
Washington, DC
http://tinyurl.com/4g7ov

As a former Reagan-administration official, registered Republican, born-again Christian, and traditional conservative, I am going to vote for John Kerry. So are many other old-line Republicans. Here's why...

Can Ruy make some comments about how turnout is likely to affect the race, and what he guesses it might be? Kevin Philips discussed this last night on NOW, and seemed to imply that a 55% turnout combined with Bush approval at 47% or so means Bush is swept into the trash. 55% would seem to favor the good guys?

The new Newsweek poll shows Bush ahead by a few points with registered, more ahead with likely, voters.

What was interesting in the article, and the first time I've seen it broken down was this concerning new voters: "Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters"

Turnout.

Addy

How does one pronounce

TEIXEIRA?

This election has reached the tipping point. BC04 is flying apart at the seams, the media (pathetic as they are) have juicy stories just landing in their lazy laps -- Voter highjinx abounding, more Bush docs, Iraq spiraling and the Dow puckering. Is there enough time? Kerry 52% Bush 46%, Kerry +40 EVs

New newsweek poll puts kerry down by 2 among reg. voters, and down 50-44 among likely voters.

However, This poll seems extremely strange. It has Bush with a lead among women, and kerry with a lead among men. I somehow don't believe it.

I think this election will be determined by two factors: turnout and fraud. Maybe the high Democratic turnout will cancel out the Republican fraud.
Neither factor can be assessed by polls right now.

If you track Dale's Electoral College Breakdown, the numbers slowly get better and better. He doesn't post this latest florida result, and if he did Kerry would be ahead. I also agree that the Bush/Rove campaign is spinning in circles right now trying to get a grip! Yes!

Much Kudos to Our Guy for a brilliant performance in the debates with an historical result of turning the race around!

"He would rather protect his rich friends than help you all in the middle class"

That's a democratic campaign that stands up and fights!

Hi everyone,
Well, I am very happy to see this poll as I live in Palm Beach County (Jupiter) Florida and I have to say that I was getting very worried about Kerry's numbers and him not being able to gain any ground on Bush. I also have to say that the Repulicans down here are very hungry for a Bush win and I see more Bush stickers on cars that I do Kerry stickers. I am apart of the democratic club down here and the democrats don't appear to be very motivated. I can't believe it since this was such a democratic county. Julia

I have been wondering about the simple advantage of always having your name listed first in the publishing of survey after survey. In the asking of the questions the names are usually rotated, but in reporting results Bush is almost always listed first. Bush, then Kerry? Why not Kerry, then Bush?

I understand that the number of new registered voters in CO. is so huge that the Sec. of State has said that people will have to work night and day to complete the data entry before 11/2. That augurs well for Ken Salaszar and Kerry/Edwards in that more new voters in that state are more likely to be Dem supporters than not. Anyone have a view on that?

partial answer to Bob H --
I'm sure you know much of this generally and are looking for specific numbers, but the polls of late have been showing an increasing divergence between 'sure to vote' voters -- Bush lead, all the way to 'registered' -- Kerry lead, sometimes substantial. It is difficult to say what level of turnout means which candidate gets what since it depends on WHOSE supporters turn out! A lot of the 'registered' voters not turning up as likely are probably recent registrants, including a large proportion of them young and concerned about the draft. THAT demographic's turnout may well determine the presidential AND the Congressional outcome.

Teixeira, a Portuguese (and Brazilian) surname is pronounced "Teshera."

I will take a stab at the question about the newly registered voters:

According to zogby, Kerry has a small lead among newly registered voters 49-42.

I suspect that most of the undecides among the newly registered voters will go to kerry. I think it will end up being something like 55-45.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10022

Hopefully this will help the democrats change the 39D to 35R. to 40D 34R, and with the massive get out the vote effort, maybe even a little better.

In answer to the Texeira pronunciation question, on the assumption that Ruy is too busy crunching numbers to respond, I have it on good authority that his last name is pronounced Te-SHER-a.

The Newsweek poll that showed Kerry with a lead among men while Bush leads among women simply shows that that poll is absolutely worthless. Anyone with a shred of intelligence knows that the gender gap is about 8-10 points and that there is simply NO chance that Kerry will win the men while losing the women. Can't possibly be true and any poll that shows otherwise is a complete waste of newsprint. The most ridiculous part is that Newsweek editors print this result with a straight face, without even bothering to mention that if true it would be an immense historic shift in voting patterns!

Despite Strategic Vision's leanings, the Boca Raton News story has SV admitting that Kerry picked up 5 points in Ohio from the debates. No other specifics were given about their Ohio numbers.