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Kerry and Bush Remain Tied

Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, one of the leading academic analysts of American politics, sends along the following update on the polls:

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 45% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 44% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader.

Among registered voters considered likely to vote in November, Kerry is at 47% and Bush is at 46% in a two-way ballot. With Nader in the race, Kerry is at 46% and Bush is at 46% among likely voters and Nader is at 2%.

The results presented here are based on 1,005 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. Of the total sample of 1,005 registered voters, 800 are likely voters in November. The interviews were completed October 2 through 4, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Comments

Oh well, Here we go again: The Mass/NH based ARG poll with the obligatory Kerry "lead". Read my bytes: If Kerry is barely tied in NJ, he is NOT tied nationally. To Wit:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11375.xml
(Note: Click on the Oct 6 link)

Quinnipiac University
Oct 6, 2004

Polling Results

October 6, 2004 - Debate Gives Kerry 3-Point Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Say Bush Acts More Like A Leader

Democratic challenger John Kerry has moved into a very narrow 49 - 46 percent lead over President George W. Bush among New Jersey likely voters, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 48 - 48 percent Bush-Kerry tie among likely voters, with 2 percent for Nader, in a September 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University.

Among registered voters backing President Bush, 82 percent say they are voting more for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 42 percent say they are voting more for the Democrat while 52 percent say they are voting more against Bush.

Today's Rasmussen tracking poll has Kerry pulling into a tie with Bush for the first time since the Repub convention.

Bush's approval rating declined significantly as did his ratings on the economy and Iraq.

Smooth-

I'm sorry, New Jersey has just as much a chance of going for Bush as Georgia does for Kerry. There's no chance it will happen.

Also, Rasmussen also has the race finally tied again. It remains to be seen whether Kerry will regain the lead in that poll as well.

I understand it is difficult for Republicans to face the fact that Kerry is improving in the polls as the Quinnipiac Poll points out.

RV: 48% Kerry and 45% for Bush ?
LV: 47% Kerry and 46% Bush?
That does not sound like a tie to me. It sounds like a slim lead. But I am no polling or statistics expert.

A bit more detail:
Coldeye gives the "nearest integer" figure from Rasmussen's homepage. The "daily snapshot" in the Premium Members' area has a Bush lead of 0.3%, down from 0.9 yesterday; but in the 16 Batleground States Kerry is actually up by 1.5.

Hi Ruy,

Just thought I'd bring this to the attention of your board: We're still in it in Missouri.

I wish the Kerry / Edwards campaign would come to Missouri instead of writing us off. Its a neck and neck race here and we could use some coattails.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MO041005wpresvgovysenx.pdf

> If Kerry is barely tied in NJ, he is NOT tied nationally.

The operative word being "if."

I dunno about you Smooth, but every poll I've seen from NJ shows Kerry ahead by 8-10 points.

Frankly, I feel sorry that you fell for Bush's "blue feint." Last time it was CA, this time NJ. This is a classic Bush tactic. Like when he campaigned (for governor) in strongly Democrat El Paso, but lost El Paso County anyhow.

Rawls posted an interesting Missouri poll from surveyusa.com.

In looking at it, there's an interesting data point; on page 9 of 25 of the doc, it indicates that voters who identify themselves as Military/Veterans (I couldn't find anyhting in this doc that elaborated on how they asked about that category) the two candidates were 48-48.

It's only a data point, but if connected with others, it might suggest the interesting conclusion that Veterans/Military are less subject to the smaears on Kerry's record than the non-veterans/military identifiers.

The last 2 polls in NJ prior to this show a 5-8 point lead for Kerry in NJ. Q* is showing a 3 point lead for Kerry, whereas they earlier had it a tie, so Kerry has picke dup 3 points.

There are plenty of reasons to believe NJ will be closer than in 2000. But Gore won by 16 points. Kerry can give up half of that and still win.

SJ -- nice work desparetly spinning.