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Kerry Ahead by 2% in Ohio

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-46 percent of Ohio LV's, according to a poll by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinatti, conducted 10/11-17.


please explain the Wash Post daily tracking poll. Do we have any info on their breakouts in terms of party ID and demographics?

Again please with sugar on top. make some comment

another non-polling indicator:

if the dow is off from convention day average ..incumbent looses!

the dow is down 400 pts from repub convention close.

I grew up in Ohio, no longer live there but get back fairly often and talk to friends there regularly. Two and a half weeks ago I was in the Dayton area and was surprised at the amount of Kerry lawn signs in the traditional suburbs such as Kettering and Centerville. The democrats that I talked to were motivated like you wouldn't believe. Ohio breaks roughly like this:

Demo stronghold ----Northeastern OH--Cleveland Akron Canton, Youngstown.

Tossup---Dayton, Springfield area, and Toledo.

Gop stronghold-----Cincinnati, Columbus.

Rural areas generally GOP although the appalachian southeast can give a lot of dem votes.