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Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry Leads by 3%

John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV's, according to a Democracy Corps Poll, conducted 10/17-18.

Comments

I think that one of the most telling aspects of this poll is that it is based on a polling population that voted 55 for Bush to 44 for Gore in 2000 and now favors Kerry by 50 Kerry and 47 for Bush.

Most interesting question in the survery:

"In last election, did you vote for Bush or Gore?"

Respondents said they voted for Bush by 50-44.

If the respondents are reporting accurately (a big 'if'), then this describes the polling bias. If the polling bias is +6 for Bush, we can expect good things in 2 weeks.

Fellow donkeys,

If the good news from this DCorps poll isn't enough to boost your spirits, I strongly recommend heading over to democracycorps.com and checking out their Public Polling chart (right column, about halfway down), which provides a superb summary of the state of the polls right now, both nationally and at the state level (and it includes our favorite statistic: the D/R split). In it you will find that the average of polls for this past several days has GWB with 47% support. Not only that, but the number has been remarkably static close to a month now. By contrast, JFK's support has risen gradually and steadily, from 43-44% pre-debates, to 45% after debate #1, 46% after #2, and 47% after number 3. This really confirms what all of us thought must be the case all along: the majority of the country is pretty unhappy with Bush, and was just waiting all along to be convinced that Kerry was the right man to replace him. Most of them have now been convinced, and them who haven't will be on November 2nd.

We all know that Bush at 47% is toast -- but if you're still pessimistic, consider the following:

1. The polls summarized by DCorps are all for LVs -- if it were RVs then Kerry would be doing even better, as has been the case in almost every poll during the entire campaign season.

2. We have had positive documentation from the NY Times that the Dems kicked some serious a** in new vote registration -- so much that even the pachyderm's shredding forms & denying applications won't be enough to counteract it.

3. With Kerry poised to win this race 51-47, we really don't even have to sweat the Electoral College, but in case you want to do that, DCorps' report has similar summaries for all the state polls, showing -- shock of all shocks -- Bush's support running at 47% or lower in essentially EVERY battleground state that is still being seriously contested: PA, OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, WI, NH, NV, CO. Right now, Kerry stands poised to win EVERY ONE of these states!! Even if Jeb & Co. steal FL, we got room to spare.

The absolutely stability of Bush's 47% is actually very good news -- it means that nothing he's done for the last month has garnered him any extra support. This race appears to have entered a static phase, and may change very little over the next 2 weeks. So rejoice! We are hurtling toward victory!

Now prepare for a very late night on November 2nd -- to see if we take back the Senate!