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Bush's Battleground Blues

Poll results in the battleground states have generally been good for Kerry lately, especially in the most important of these states.

In that light, it's interesting to note that four recently-released national polls give Kerry leads of 6-7 points in the battleground states overall. In 2000, these states broke evenly between Gore and Bush, so a 6-7 point Kerry lead, if real, would be quite significant.

Here are the polls and the numbers:

Marist (10/17-19): 50-43
Pew (10/15-19): 49-43
NBC/WSJ (10/16-18): 49-43
Harris (10/14-17): 51-44

If this pattern coninues, Bush will be in big trouble come November 2.

Comments

I am somewhat perplexed by the comprehensive battleground polls that have consistently shown a Kerry edge, which is now quite large. Yet, in most polls of specific battleground states, Kerry does not seem to have anywhere near the same cumulative advantage. How many states are being included in the battleground polls.

Saw an interesting theory on one of the blogs regarding the much discussed "undecided" rule. In this election, if one is living in a "swing" state, support for Bush is understood to be intellectually indefensible by Bush leaners. They thus declare themselves as "undecided" to their reality based friends, or simply remain quiet. They are, however, solidly for Bush. They then cast their Bush ballot and, if asked, declare they voted for Kerry. I have read (probably on this site) that the undecided rule is foolproof and of virtual universal applicability, but admit to concern because Bush is such a "unique" candidate.

Apparently the Bush campaign is now putting an ad implying that Kerry is hopeless on security, "Wolves", which sounds pretty powerful.

I really wish the Kerry campaign would counter with a pack of hyenas representing the entire Bush crew.

Just a loopy thought, at a particularly loopy time at the end of a very long campaign year, but they are mimicking the Reagan "Bear" ad and I do think Kerry needs to counter with exactly how dangerous this bunch is, and what a disaster they are for our national security.

Last night on the Aaron Brown program on CNN they had a segment on how dangerous Iraq is to reporters trying to film the story there. They had some magnificent photographs of the ruin so many places in that country are in, and the desperation of the people there. I remember right before we invaded, there were some articles in one of the major papers here on Baghdad, with photos, and what an impressive city it was. The story that is not getting told here, that reminds me so much of the ruination in Vietnam, is what we have done to the daily lives of these people. It sounds terrifying to be there.

We need a change, but there is something essentially wrong with a country with our level of wealth and comfort, so terrified, so bullying, so immune to the needs of the rest of the world, and to our own citizens'.

Go Kerry.

Mady

Christopher B- What you said! Ruy, help us out. The state by state numbers and the "battleground" subsamples of national polls seem unreconcilable. Which should we believe and why? Which have the greater MOE? And what could account for the discrepancy (which seems too consistent to be due to sampling error)? I realize, only a week and three days until we find out anyway, but I need my piece of mind!

brp