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WAPO-ABC News Poll: Bush Ahead by 7

Bush leads Kerry 51-44 percent among nation-wide RV's, with 2 percent for Nader, 2 percent other/neither and 2 percent no opinion, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted 9/23-6.

Comments

I guess it's pretty clear Bush has the edge going into the debates. Bummer.

Ruy:

Do we know what the internals are for the WaPo poll? Does this poll suffer from Gallup's problems?

Let's toss out the silly Gallup poll--- I'm convinced it's another stinker. This poll is the one that disturbs me. The WaPo ABC one has more Ds than Rs in it, but it has Kerry trailing by 6 (LVs) or 7 (RVs) anyway-- he trails in every age group, and trails by three among women, though interestingly he's winning college graduates. (Perhaps their high school grads skew white, and their college grads skew towards those with postgrad degrees?) It also has Bush over 50, an even worse sign than a 6-7 point lead by itself-- and it's not like our guy lacks name ID.

On the other hand Gore came back from pretty much this situation with this amount of clock left-- and Kerry has more money, and a better media team than Gore (though he seemed not to have any until after the RNC).

I couldn't find a breakdown by party ID for this poll. Does anyone have that?

It appears as though the Party ID here was roughly 37 % R 40% D and 23% Ind. No good news here.

Mark

Well, it now seems obvious that Gallup isn;t the only one weighing their polls. The Post poll also had more R identifiers than the national average.

And just to drive the paranoia home, their headline mentioned a "solid lead," despite the fact that the lead was only 6-7 points.

to mark- where did you get the party ID info from?

Washington Post polls have always been favorable to Bush, though, and have always had him near or above 50% even at his lowest. Even at Kerry's high, he was never more than a few points up. Either the Post is completely accurate and other polls with distinguished track records, like Harris, are wrong, or there's something about it's methodology that skews Bush.

Mark, how did you find that party ID break-down in the Washington Post/ABC News poll? I can't find it anywhere on the Post's "Poll Vault" Web site.

What I can find is the last poll WP/ABC News did in Wisconsin, and it had an oversample of Republicans in it of 6 points.

What I don't like about this poll is that independents are skewing for Bush, 47-42%. This ain't good and it ain't related to party ID.

The party ID information wasn't there. I used their information on how people who gave a party preference voted and solved backward based on the overall precentages.

In other words, I used Algebra.

If you want details to check whether I'm mistaken I'd be happy to provide them.

Mark

AirBlair-

Depends on whether those independents are representative of independents as a whole. If you're only getting 20% or so of people responding, it's quite plausible that those independents inclined to support Bush are oversampled.