« Even MoveOn.org Is Playing the "How Can Gallup......." Game! | Main | New IBD/CSM/TIPP Shows Dead Heat in Race for White House »

Pew Research Center Has Bush Up 3, Then 8 in Two New Polls

Bush leads Kerry 45-42 and 48-40 in two polls of nation-wide RV's conducted 9/17-21 and 9/22-26 respectively by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.



You guys do a good job in pasting lipstick on a pig, but only the typical cocooners will buy your spin IMO: That the 3 point GWB lead last week is comparable to an 8 point lead in the same poll TODAY. You post the 2 polls side by side, matter of factly, and without perspective, as if nothing happened between the 1 week period between survey coverage.

I have news for you, if you're willing to listen. Kerry made a fool of himself dissing the Iraqi PM who came here to, among other things, thank us for our sacrifice. Even Kerry flack, Joe Biden, cringed on TV while acknowledging he sought to assure PM Allawi after Kerry stepped in it.

To be sure, I know that the typical Michael "FahrenHype 911" Moore and Whoopi " Kiss My ___" Bush-Hating types, including many on this forum, loved Kerry's offensive against Allawi; But ask yourself how many swing voters appeciated the assault against a foreign leader expressing his gratitude to us. And could this have helped to swing Pew and almost all the other most recent polls against Kerry.

Can you explain the internals of the new Pew Poll, especially their samplin of republicans and democrats. The result is worrisome, unless it has the same flawed sampling techniques exhibited by Gallup.

When I went to the Pew site, I saw no information on the realative Republican Democratic sample size.

Plenty of talk about party I.D. But in this poll, 15% of the democrats support President Bush, while only 7% of the republicans support Senator Kerry? Independents back the president by 8 points. All in all, it's hard to rationalize these results based on faulty weighting.

The president leads among women by 3, while Vice-President Gore won their support by 11 points in 2000. Young people back the president 48-42 (Rock the Vote indeed). Clearly, Senator Kerry is having trouble holding the support of people that have traditionally backed democrats.

Wrong candidate, or wrong campaign. Either way, when you have to "reintroduce" (McCurry's term) your candidate on September 30th, you've got serious problems.

put a fork in kerry, he is done.people just do not like him and unless bush makes a major flub in the debates kerry is toast. the media is working real hard to re-elect bush so the debate spin will be all pro bush unless he messes up so badly they can`t spin it.it will tighten at the end ,but the reality is this election is not tied and that bush has a solid lead.

Kerry does have some work to do. The cumulative impact of these polls, for all their biases, should tell us that people need to feel more secure about the idea of President Kerry. He still has this opportunity and ability to do so, but it's not getting any earlier in the race. Depending upon any number of issues (real news, debate gaffes or strokes of genius, which pile of hay the debate pundits choose to eat from), things could go in any number of directions.

As for hanging the poll swings on the Allawi-Kerry news thread, I can't agree or disagree. I just haven't seen it come up in the places I usually visit for news. True, Dick Cheney made the claim, but I have yet to count his as an Everyman sort of figure.

Coming back to Smooth's much-less-than-smooth characterization of Kerry, this race in some ways does boil down to the idea of putting lipstick on a pig. Bush has done a deft job of convincing the public that Kerry needs the makeup. To the extent that no candidate is perfect, Kerry has some reframing to do.

The amazing part to me, however, is that people are seriously considering voting for Bush on the rationale that although makeup could never conceal his own piglike qualities (Smooth chose the metaphor...I can only work with it), at least he's consistently a pig. It's not rational, but it's the game.

On a humorous note, this all calls to mind the old Adlai Stevenson line where he was told that he could count on the vote of every thinking person in America. Stevenson replied (paraphrasing from memory) "That is good to hear, but I need a majority to win."

Man, the trolls are out today. Must be a special, "build up to the debates" campaign going on. I'm fairly happy where JK is right now. About 5 points down or so, with the debates coming. All that's happened in the past month is Republicans and Republican leaners have "come home" before Democrats. Happens every four years. If you recall, Bush was much more than this far ahead four years ago, but then, predictably, those last 5-6% worth of marginal Democratic voters came home, and it ended up a tie. Kerry is in better position now than Gore was about three weeks out, after the 2000 debates. He's fine.

Until we see what percent of the Pew sample was R's, D's, and I's, we should reserve judgment. Andrew Kohut, a leading figure with the Pew organization, is an outspoken opponent of sample weighting on Party ID. This could just be Gallup all over again. In fact, we now know that Pew's poll was done by Princeton Survey Research Associates, the same firm that does Newsweek's polls (which have included disproportionate numbers of Republicans relative to turnout in the '92, '96, and 2000 elections).

Indeed, another poll released yesterday, by Investor's Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor (polling agency TIPP) showed Kerry leading 46-45 among likely voters.



Kerry was caught in another Whopper today: When interviewed by Dianne Sawyer, he said the "I voted for it before I voted against it" quote resulted because it was late at night and he was tired.

It turns out when he gave that speech in Huntington, WV, it was 12:00NOON. Some may consider this trivial, like his Christmas in Cambodia lie; But when fair minded undecided consider the ALL of Kerry's misquotes and prevarications, they don't see a consistent, strong, honest figure.

I can't see how he can get any traction in polls with these kinds of misstatements.

'Kerry made a fool of himself dissing the Iraqi PM who came here to, among other things, thank us for our sacrifice'

I think you miswrote --- a man who cannot control his own country, his own capital city or even his own compound,. whose every moment is guarded by American troops, whose tenure is temporary till January came to America posing as an indepdent leader.

'But ask yourself how many swing voters appeciated the assault against a foreign leader expressing his gratitude to us. And could this have helped to swing Pew and almost all the other most recent polls against Kerry.'

I don't think Kerry's comments on Allawi had any impact at all except among people who believe Allawi is Thomas Jefferson, reborn. Most people recognize he's not a true leader and most of us also recognize brown-nosing when we see it.

And other polls haven't shown a move away from Kerry this week either.

If I had to guess, I would put the real difference midway between these 2 numbers, which amoungs to a difference of 5 or so points. Still a lead for Bush, but not an insurmountable lead.

I find the Pew results somewhat disappointing, but can't dismiss them out of hand. I do wonder why they've been bouncing around so much, though. Three weeks ago they had Bush up by 16 (?!) then a tie and then by three and then by eight at a time when most other surveys show Kerry either gaining or the race remaining essentially static. I don't think that the Allawi comments had much of an effect, at least a lasting one, and their young voter results noted by a previous poster are at variance with Newsweek's extensive poll of that age group. (But such voters are volatile and unpredictable, so maybe Pew's right.) But maybe Pew's onto something; the race might be more fluid and changing more frequently then most analysts think. Maybe. I don't know.

But since I don't know Pew's methodology, I won't write them off as wrong, though I don't think they're uniquely right, either. They're just one more ingredient to be tossed into the stew pot of polls and analysis.

> Kerry made a fool of himself dissing the Iraqi PM
> who came here to, among other things, thank us
> for our sacrifice.

Some Americans don't appreciate sacrificing our own country's national security in an attempt to liberate others.

Seems like a conservative stance to me.

"Kerry was caught in another Whopper today: When interviewed by Dianne Sawyer, he said the "I voted for it before I voted against it" quote resulted because it was late at night and he was tired.

It turns out when he gave that speech in Huntington, WV, it was 12:00NOON."

That's not a whopper; if you want to see a whopper, revisit George Dubya Custer on WMD's in Iraq (by way of Salon Magazine's article on Bradley's 60 Minute expose that wasn't).

WMD's in Iraq, now that's a whopper!

I was going to point out to LL Smooth J that a busy candidate in the midst of a heated campaign can indeed by VERY tired at noon on any given day. I was going to do this until I realized that the whole point of Smooth Jazz, et al., posting here is to bog down yet another progressive site in the mud of distortion and non sequitur -- an accurate description of not only George W. Bush's campaign, but his entire presidency as well.

Hey, I have no doubt that Bush will win, even though the Gallup numbers are clearly dreck. Best of luck to all of you, even Smooth J and company, over the next miserable four years. You ain't seen nothing yet.

Four more years!

One word: outlier. Majority of polls all show the race is a dead heat. If Pew's numbers are consistently all over the place, and they are known to eschew weiting by party ID, well, I think it's pretty obvious what's happening with their data.

I see a strong consistent figure in Bush all right -- a man who said clearly that the war on terror can be won, then changed his mind, then changed it again, saying it could be won.

And what about that trip to Mars anyway ?

Kerry's statements on Allawi were correct and needed to be said. Kerry cant be faulted if there are not enough intelligent people in the market capable of handing and digesting solid truth.

If the American people prefer to swallow chocolate coated crap, then Kerry cant be expected to take the wrap for that.

Bush has been proven over and over to be grossly incompetent, some have labelled him a blatant liar, he himself has questioned his own intelligence. If the people of America prefer this kinda person in the white house, then please dont blame Kerry for people's lack of intelligence. People usually get the government they deserve.

Personally, I am in that crowd who says that Kerry is doing fine. He is doing, mostly, the right things and has said, for the most part, the right things.

I think Kerry has had a pretty good 14 days and I think this will be reflected in the poll stats from the coming 10 - 14 days.

Look, its the people's choice. They decide if they want intelligence, integrity, level headed decision making, expert foreign policy decisions, rock solid domestic policies, a strong army, a quelling of terrorism as would be given by Kerry, or if they want to continue to live in fear of another 9/11, have a deficit that cant be counted on a regular scale, have insurance for a select few, continued mass murders on Iraq and plenty shadowy forms of truth, as would be continued by Bush and his cohorts.

Kerry has done enough and is doing a fine job and as such I cant think of any reason why he should beg the electorate to exercise intelligent judgment if its not there. There is really nothing that Kerry can do to make people intelligent and smart. Nothing.

Goober J, Regarding your 2:12 pm Post:

Actually I take your comparison of Long Live Cool James and I to be a compliment, insofar as we have similar backgrounds: I'm a native of the Fort Greene section of Brooklyn, NY, across the river from ground zero; while He grew up in Queens, NY, dodging bullets like I did as a youngster.

That said, don't get discouraged yet, given all the reports of voter fraud being discussed (See Below). You guys may yet be able to get a few dead people, et al to vote. The way things are going however, you may need to do 10,000,000 type Dan Rather frauds to overcome GWB's margin.


Revise all your expectations. Throw all the poll results out the window. All bets should be off for this year’s election, because the huge get-out-the-vote efforts promised by various new independent groups is apparently yielding a “get-out-the-ineligible-dead-and-vote” effort.

Bill Hobbs is beginning a project to collect reports in this area.

Besides yesterday’s reports about Ohio, there are a lot more reports of fraudulent voter registrations around the country.

Here’s a report from Lansing, Michigan:

The Lansing city clerk's office is sorting through thousands of fraudulent voter registration forms that have been turned in recently.
The city is using $2,000 from its general fund budget to pay for two temporary workers to sort through 5,000 to 8,000 bad forms.

"We're going to have them painstakingly compare each form to the qualified voter file," Lansing City Clerk Debbie Miner said.

Officials believe the forms were turned in by the state advocacy group Public Interest Research Group In Michigan, Ingham County Clerk Mike Bryanton said.

The Ingham County Sheriff's Office is investigating.

Calls to PIRGIM's Ann Arbor office were not returned Friday or Tuesday.
Bryanton said the investigation shows that some people took names out of a phone book and forged signatures.

Meridian Township has been dealing with the same problem for the past few weeks.

"They have no idea the problems they've caused," Meridian Township Clerk Mary Helmbrecht said.

Helmbrecht said Tuesday that her staff hasn't requested extra help, but that her office has been flooded with extra forms.

"We just got an envelope (Monday) with 100 more forms from that group," she said. "It's extraordinarily time consuming."

Last month, Helmbrecht's office notified Bryanton about registration form irregularities such as addresses that didn't exist or several people listed for the same apartment.

The sheriff's investigation shows that members of PIRGIM, a statewide advocacy group that encourages voter registration, were paid $50 a day to collect registrations and were given bonuses for collecting extra forms, Bryanton said.

The Detroit Free Press observes, “Officials of two of the organizations conducting voter registration drives, PIRGIM — the Public Interest Research Group in Michigan — and Project Vote say only a handful of collectors and a relatively small number of registrations are at issue. Perhaps so, but the integrity of a system is at stake.”

Here is another report from Racine, Wisconsin.

A group that says it has registered 30,000 voters in southeastern Wisconsin could face a criminal investigation because of voter registration applications that may have been filed fraudulently.
Acting Racine City Clerk Carolyn Moskonas said Tuesday she will ask the district attorney's office to investigate at least six voter registration applications filed by Project Vote.

That non-profit organization, which also has filed scores of Racine applications that contain bogus addresses, has fired its Racine-area coordinator because of problems with the filings.

Moskonas said that in each of the six potential fraud cases, the people named on the Project Vote applications told her office they had not signed the forms and had not been contacted by any voter registration drives.

"It was kind of scary," Racine Affirmative Action Officer Jerry Scott said about seeing his name and apparently forged signature on one of the six applications. He was already registered to vote and also registers voters as a volunteer.

"I'm a firm believer that your name is one thing about you that is sacred and it should be protected," Scott said. "Someone forging your name and your signature - I think there should be some pretty strict penalties for that."

Denise Peterson said she also was outraged that her name and signature and those of her husband, Terry Peterson, also were on forms that she said they did not complete or authorize.

"I hope somebody finds out who's doing this," she said.

The same problem has surfaced in neighboring Caledonia, said Town Clerk Wendy Christensen. She has asked Caledonia police to investigate cases in which four residents said they had not signed applications turned into the clerk's office, including at least two submitted by Project Vote.

Whether the possibly fraudulent voter registration applications could lead to any widespread voter fraud seems unlikely, because anyone wanting to vote in someone else's name would have to know which faked applications were processed, Moskonas and Christensen said.

But they said they could not guarantee that they will catch all of the applications that have problems.

Doris Alexander, head of Project Vote in Milwaukee, said she fired Damien Jones, the organization's Racine-Kenosha coordinator, last Friday after she learned there were problems in Racine.

She said she did not know details of the problems and would not comment further on Jones.

"I'm very hopeful that we can resolve this right away," Alexander said. "We're confident that whatever problems that we're having will be eliminated."

Jones, a former Racine resident who is the Green Party candidate for a state Assembly seat in Milwaukee in the Nov. 2 election, said his termination "was pretty much a mutual thing." He said the Racine problems were serious but isolated, given that Project Vote - which pays workers $7 an hour and $1.50 per application after they reach a quota - has filed nearly 1,900 voter registration applications with the city in the past couple of months.

Not angry enough? How about this report from Nevada?

Clark County Registrar Larry Lomax first warned the public in July that his office was receiving a large number of suspect forms distributed by groups looking to register new voters in this tight election season.

Lomax originally turned over the matter to the FBI, which he said had declined to investigate.

The issue later went to the Nevada Division of Investigations, which continues to look into the matter, Heller said.

The Dan Rather philosophy - that the ends justify the means as long as it harms Bush - has spread to many of these “voter outreach” groups.

Folks, I’m going to be voting in the District of Columbia on Nov. 2, which means my vote is about as worthless as you can get. But nothing can tear down people’s faith in democracy like the suspicion - or, increasingly, the knowledge - that their vote is canceled out or overtaken by a bunch of "the-rules-don’t-apply-to-me" goons who stuff the ballot box.

Incredible, some of the comments (like Joel) you would think Kerry is behind 10-15 points and sinking fast.

Compare most recent Bush Kerry two-way polls

Bush Kerry (B-K)

ECONOMIST 45 46 -1
TIPP 45 46 -1
GALLUP 52 44 8
TIME 49 45 4
FOX 45 43 2
CBS 49 41 8
GQRR 49 49 0
NBC/WSJ 49 46 3
ZOBGY 47 44 3
ARG 47 46 1

Average Bush lead is 2.7% and I am including the Gallup Poll that has been critizitzed. Without it the lead is 2.1%

So Bush’s lead at best is a bit less than 3%!?! A sitting president during wartime, has spend over 200 million blasting his opponent, with a kickass campaign team one of the best in history, with the Republican Senate and House helping along, with Kerry not running the best campaign, and his lead is within the margin of error?

This whole talk about how Bush is on the verge of a landside, Kerry is roadkill and we all might as well go home is purely baloney and part of the anti-kerry machine.

Look at the 2000 election: just 5 days before the election the CNN/Time poll had the election at

10/27 Bush 49 Gore 43

Look at the poll results for 10/1/2000 Bush then Gore (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm)

Last column is Bush-Gore.

For 10/1/2000

ABC/WASHINGTON POST 10/1 46 48 3 1 - 2
CBS/NEW YORK TIMES ^ 10/1 43 47 4 2 - 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/1 45 45 3 1 0
ICR ^ 10/1 42 45 6 4 - 3
MARIST COLLEGE 10/1 47 45 2 1 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/1 41 45 3 1 - 4
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/1 41 41 4 1 0

For 9/17/2000

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 9/17 43 48 3 1 - 5
HARRIS ^ 9/17 41 49 3 1 - 8
ICR ^ 9/17 42 44 6 2 - 2
JOHN McLAUGHLIN (R) ^ 9/17 44 46 3 1 - 2
VOTER.COM ^ # 9/17 41 37 4 1 4
WASH. POST/KAISER * # 9/17 43 47 3 1 - 4

For 10/18/2000

ABC # 10/18 48 44 3 1 4
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP # 10/18 49 39 5 - 10
NBC 10/18 45 43 3 1 2
REUTERS/MSNBC ^ # 10/18 44 43 5 1 1
VOTER.COM ^ # 10/18 44 40 4 1 4

Nice try rambdan, but I have 2 points:

You cannot just look at the 2 way; Nader is in 32 states including some of the key states (ie PA & FLA) where the race is close. To just leave Nader off completely misrepresents a key dynamic in this race...Secondly, you left out 2 polls, WP/ABC & AP/IPSOS, which show GWB with a 8-9 point lead.

ok, eventhough i believe Nader will be no factor, few if any kerry or bush supporters are going to go to Nader, its going to be hippies and kids that wouldn't vote otherwise. Also problem is that Nader is in only 32 states and may be in less than those. Polls are nationwide. Regardless looking at 3 way polls Bush is ahead by 5%. Averaing out both since many polls do both 2 and 3 way its at best a 4% race, hardly anything to be concerned about. there were several times in Sept and Oct 2000 where both Bush and Gore were 4% ahead or behind. The WP/ABC has equal number of D/R and the AP is heaily toward R.

Regardless a 3-5% gap in late Sept against a sitting president in a time of war is not that bad at all. if bush were not 5% behind Kerry would you say he might as well resign since the election is lost?