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New Study Targets Key Groups for Kerry Gains

John Kerry can make major gains among key demographic groups of discontented white voters: women blue and pink collar workers; rural voters; those under age 30; and senior women, according to a study of post-Labor Day polls by Democracy Corps reported 9/28. The study also identified other demographic groups Kerry should target for significant gains.


"New Study Targets Key Groups for Kerry Gains"

To this non-statistician and Kerry supporter this doesn't sound very rosy for Dems. Am I missing something?

To anyone and everyone who's getting down about our chances or who's worried, let me remind you:

Back in December 2003, Dean was said to be inevitable, and everybody had written off Kerry as the "dead man walking," with no chance of winning.

But then, he and Edwards (also written off) clobber both of the suposed "leading" candidates in Iowa (Dean and Gephardt). When they say Kerry closes the deal they mean it.

Man, I can't wait to see all the pollsters and talking heads who wrote off Kerry eat crow like they did last year.

Zogby just released a poll among under-30 males that does not look good for Bush. Sounds like another ripe target for Dems.


I noticed something interesting about the 9/27 WaPo poll that gives Bush a 7 point lead:

Poll results by region

Bush and Cheney
East 44%
Midwest 58%
South 55%
West 41%
All 51%

Kerry and Edwards
East 51%
Midwest 35%
South 41%
West 53%
All 44%

So, if we are to believe this, Kerry leads large in the east and the west - the most populous regions of the country. The south is split very close to the "All", so the only place that is lopsided is the Midwest. The LEAST populate region of the country. If we look at the most populated midwest states, it's close in Ohio, but it's a Kerry blow out in Illinois. It's close in Michigan (but still solid Kerry lead). So what to make of this? People who live in populated regions DON'T talk to polsters.

And remember, people who live in populated regions are overwhelmingly Democrats.

DanF, if proves they're counting too many Republicans and not enough Dems.

Yeah, Zogby has a new poll out - Kerry has all the momentum now.

Another thing. Although I haven't been too optimistic about Kerry's chances in the past, some things have given me pause lately. The debates: Kerry's expectations have been so lowered for these debates he can't but exceed them. It looks like he'll "win" no matter what happens, unless he spontaneously combusts. Secondly, Bush's numbers seem to have mostly topped around 47%-48%. It's almost as if he can't get much higher. Kerry's lower numbers may simply be a function of a de-energized base. If the debates re-energize them, his numbers will come roaring back.


I don't know who will win this one, but if Zogby shows Kerry ahead in a couple of weeks or more, you'd better listen to Aretha Franklin and give the Zogster r-e-s-p-e-c-t.

Find out what it means to me and roughly half the electorate.

He's got the track record. Gallup does not.
From another jazz fan.

I think Bush is ahead, but only by a couple of points. The country wants change, but isn't sold on Kerry. Remember, it was only on election day 1980 that a race that was truly to close to call suddenly became a landslide for Reagan. In hte Carter/Reagan race the only pollster who got it right was President Carter's polster Pat Caddell