« CBS Poll: Bush Ahead by 8 | Main | CBS Poll: Bush Ahead by 8 »

Marist Poll: Statistical Tie

Bush Leads Kerry 47-45 percent of nation-wide RV's, with 3 percent for Nader and 5 percent undecided in a Marist Poll conducted 9/20-22. (margin of error +/- 3.5 percent)

Comments

One curious thing to note in this Marist poll, which bears closer examination overall:
Asked how they would feel about the victory of either candidate, EVEN THO THE POLL SHOWED A NATIONAL LEAD FOR BUSH OF 2%, only 46% said they would be "happy" or "delighted" if Kerry won, while the figure for Kerry was 48%. By contrast, 42% said they would be "unhappy or miserable" if Bush won, while the figure was 39% for Kerry.
Thus Bush's margin of victory seems to come overwhelmingly from the 12-13% who "don't care".
These must split 2-1 or more for Bush for him to have an overall lead. Maybe the margin comes from those whose votes are bought!