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John Belisarius

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Kerry Leads in New PA Poll

In a SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania LV's for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre and KDKA-TV Pittsburgh conducted Sept.7-9, Kerry Leads Bush 49-47 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

Comments

Wow. Those state polls also have Kerry in the lead in Florida and Iowa. Cool.

I doubt very much that Kerry will lose Pennsylvania, unless Bush wins nationwide by at least 5-7 points (which isn't going to happen.) PA's numbers for Bush have consistently lagged behind those found in national polls by at least this 5-7 point margin.

Bush's post-hatefest, 1 point lead in Pennsylvania from some other poll the other day will probably be his high water mark for this state. The Bush campaign would be smart to redeploy some of their PA resources to Florida, Ohio and the upper Midwest, which all seem to be much more in play.

GOOD NEWS AT THE ELECTORIAL VOTE PREDICTOR!
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Kerry is now ahead! I guess this is the begining of the end of the Bush bounce.

Frankly, I've always found it hard to believe that a state that gave Gore a majority (51%) would reverse course later on. I've always found it curious that Bush is charging so hard in a state that, demographically, leans blue, rather than a more purple state (like MO or NV). It might be closer than the rest of the norhteast, but PA always votes a bit more Democrat than the nation as a whole (it has since 1952), and I don't see why now would be any different.

Ruy, given that the Nader is on fewer and fewer ballots should we encourage the national media to strip him from their polls?

Also, given that the ABC/Post poll had it only plus four in the battleground for Bush, could we be seeing lots of movement to the Rs in the Red states and less in the saturated battleground? I really wonder given how polarized everything is and how few states are seeing the real campaign should we even be treating the national numbers seriously?

By the way, great work these last few weeks.

According to Time's latest poll, Bush is ahead by 11 points.

Also according to this poll, Bush beat Gore by 12 points.

I think it's good when a poll includes a question that exposes its flaws. "Who did you vote for in 2000?" should be a standard question.

Hey All,


I have the Rasmussen Poll for MI, OH, PA, FL:

PA

B 48 (with leaners) 48
K 49 (with leaners (50)

MI

B 45 (with leaners) 46
K 48 (with leaners) 50

OH

B 46 (with leaners) 46
K 49 (with leaners) 50

FL

B 47 (with leaners) 47
K 49 (with leaners) 49

Beginning to shift in Kerry's direction. Also, Rasmussen only had Bush up by a point. So the post convention bounce is shrinking.

The other hopeful for the day - the electoral vote counter - has Kerry in the lead today 273 to Bush 233. They (based on Survey USA) give Kerry the lead in PA. Also they believe the Bush lead in MO is shrinking.

There was a lengthy discussion on Push polls. The electoral vote counter also predicts, today, a 50/50 Senate.

JR

Nice to see those OH and PA numbers. According to today's Rasmussen NC's out of play (55-42 for Bush, after another poll had it just 50-46) but we don't need in NC in any case. FL polls have been meaningless for a few weeks due to the hurricanes-- half the state can't get to their phones. (I've heard that Kerry campaign offices aren't able to do much campaign work because they're still being used as hurricane shelters.)

Thank you Jody, you've made my day!
Another subject - today my local paper FINALLY ran an article on the hardships the American service people face upon returning home from Iraq - physically, emotionally, financially. A while back there was an article written by American docs in Iraq hospitals - stating they had never seen such horrific injuries. Maybe as these survivors return home and this impact is felt, K/E's numbers will continue the uptick

you democrats are a riot!!! first, after GWB gets a nice big bounce out of the Republican convention you all say polls can't be trusted... then, this never heard of before poll, Survey USA, gives some good news for kerry and all of a sudden that poll is the second coming!!! i'm going to miss laughing at you and the idiotic race you're running after this election is over.

God bless our 2-term President GWB!!!

Hey Jimmy Dean, BJ Clinton, Samuel...why don't you just leave our site? I don't go to Republican sites and say rude things. It has been said that people vote for two reasons: love or hate. It's clear to me what stirs your passions. John Kerry is 10 times the man George Bush could ever hope of being, and it takes hate to not see that.

"Jimmy Dean": You sir, are quite the satirist! I'm laughing out loud at the hilarity of your post. Now, let's get back to the hard work of electing our team, Kerry-Edwards.

Hey Jimmy Dean,

"God is dead"
Nietzsche

The electoral vote counter also predicts, today, a 50/50 Senate.

With John Edwards casting the tie-breaking vote!

Sky,

That was the one I was waiting for!

I wondered how long before some Dem used the Kerry tactic of silencing opposing voices. Yeah, baby, you liberals love free speech as long as it agrees with you.

Can you really say people are voting for Kerry out of love? This is a site about polls, so what do the polls say. I believe they say Bush supporters are overwhelmingly supporting him while Kerry supporters are overwhelmingly voting AGAINST Bush. So who is motivated by hate? That is all we've had from you people since our boy punked Gore (he never recovered, can't one of you give him some help!).

Ok, I won't wear out my welcome but I do think you are being unfair to Samuel. He is, after all, a Dem who just has problems with Kerry. Or is one of your own not allowed to dissent?

I shouldn't be surprised.

4 more years!

This is a civil site. Snarkiness, meanness, and embittered rants are not the norm. The tone of your post reveals your character.

I guess those right-wing neo-con sites are so damn boring with every body getting ready for Sunday school, they have to come over here to spread there shit.

Now, now people. The proper response to a turd at a garden party is to smile and ignore it.

Rather than ascribe this to a particular poll, I will simply say that poll data make clear the following:

1. On a national basis, Bush and Kerry are probably tied, give or take a point.

2. Some polls are accurate, some are grossly inaccurate.

3. The grossly inaccurate polls all show Bush with a much greater lead than the others.

4. The polls which show Bush up more than a few points all have problems with unrepresentative samples, flawed assumptions, or both.

5. There is a concerted effort by Bush and some media to declare this "fight" over, and award a TKO to Bush, in spite of the fact that Kerry is winning, and the crowd sees it.

6. The current [beer hall] push by the Bush Leaguers should make clear they are running scared, terrified, and playing to create the false impression that Bush is way ahead.

7. Bush's handlers know he needs to believe he's out in front. He gets more and more goofy when he thinks he's behind.

Its obvious that Kerry is on the move and taking over the lead... the increased presence of the repubs in these posts are quite indicative of the fact that bush is beginning to lose more traction.

When he was reportedly 11 points ahead, these guys were not present on the site... but now that the lead has narrowed, they have turned up here to vent their bad feelings.. playing mongoose in the hen house..

But BJ... you know it wont work. I still encourage you to go campaign for Kerry and vote for him too... it will make you feel much better... win or lose. Join the team and elect a decent president.

cheers

Bel,

You are a decent guy, you know I enjoy the give and take so please don't take offense. I followed Kaus's link to this site so that is why I've been missing this garden party.

I agree that the race will tighten but what makes you contend that Kerry is taking over the race? Sounds like another unsubstantiated theory or is it wishful thinking?

Warp resident, you sound like you've had some experience with turds...maybe you're running with the wrong crowd.

Gabby, no one is declaring this race over, but you have to admit that if anyone is looking desperate, it is not the President.

Wonkie, you make a good point. Hey, its not personal, right?

Ed, you misjudge us rightwing neo-cons with that Sunday school crack. I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a pre-frontal lobotomy. Live and let live and I refer you to Wonkie's post.

4 more years!

Ah BJ..

No offense at all, the "debate" is fine... but I am still at a lost as to how anyone can support GWB. I can understand it if you tell me you are a repub. and you intend to vote party and by extension, you have to support Bush. He being the candidate. If this is your take on the elections, then I can hang with you. Vote Bush.

But if you tell me that you actually find favour in Bush himself and not the party, then you need to have your head examined, taken off and cleaned up even. So tell me where you stand... personally, I cant think of anyone in their right mind that can support Bush. I can accept party support but certainly not Bush support.

And its the same in the DEM camp. Lots of people dont support Kerry but they need to move bush, so in order to move him, they MUST vote Kerry and thats exactly what will happen in this elections. If Kerry wins, it wont be due to support for him personally, I dont even think it will be due to support for the DEMs party, I think it will be due mostly to support for the removal of Bush and a combination of the above factors.

These elections are more about the removal of Bush than the election of Kerry. I think this is the reason why Kerry is having hell gaining traction in the polls because most people who will eventually vote for Kerry just aint declaring their true feelings and they will only do this in the booths.

I am personally convinced that both the polls and the media have this entire campaign totally misread. I am still of the opinion that Kerry will win. I have had that position for months and the polls dont phase me in the least bit. I read them study them and stick with kerry like white on rice.

I hold this position not because of any particular poltical persausion but simply because this world needs a sensible leader. Bush is not up to the task and needs to be removed. I have no real hard feelings against Bush but his record does not stand, it holds no water, its a failed tenure and I cannot support failure. Not at this level anyway.

BJ.... I say to you.. if you are stuck with the party, then you MUST vote Bush but if you want a better world, if you want to help other nations, if you want a better america, if you want better paying jobs, if you want lower cost on healthcare, if it matters to you about world opinion, then you have no choice. YOU MUST VOTE FOR KERRY.

Like many other people, you may have no idea what Kerry stands for, you may have no idea whats in his message but, his tenure, in four years, will do far more for the US and the world than Bush would ever do in 20 years.

So I suggest that you follow your inner spirit and vote for a better america and a better world. Vote for Kerry. Once things return to a state of normalcy, then you can surely vote repub again.

There are times when you simply have to make decisions that rip at your heart, decisions that go counter to you own belief systems, decisions that make you second guess everything but you still have to make that decision in order to foster and develop a greater cause.

This is where we are in the world right now. There is a greater cause that transcends both Bush and Kerry. Unfortunately, bush had his moments in the sun and made a mess of things. He has proven that he is incapable. As fate would have it, Kerry is the only person left to man the fort and as such, must be given his moment in the sun to start the rectification process.

Go ahead and vote for Kerry, BJ... trust me on this one, it will be worth it... and while you are at it, please take some time to convince your friends and associates to follow your lead and vote for Kerry. We need a better world right now.

Bel,

A beautiful response to BJ. I joined the Kerry bandwagon the day after the midterm elections in 02. I was assulted by Dean supporters and others. I held firm. The world needs Kerry. Sometimes I feel like Alice through the looking glass. Our international support is nil -many, many folks in Europe (not the enemy - acutally lifelong US supporters) find Bush crazy, stupid, or evil. Too many children go to bed hungry and the working men and women of the country continue to see their well-being jeopardized. How oh how can a reasoned person support Bush/Cheney? Yikes!

I too believe the election will be won with a record voter turnout. I continually encounter people who tell me they have always voted Republican but will not do so this time. There are lots of ABB voters.

Beyond the election, as a nation, we need to find a way to reconcile the destructive division splitting us apart. I have all manner of psycho-babble ideas why a certain element works to divide the nation - hell, we do not need bin Laden, we do a fine job destroying our own.

I dream of a world where all mothers and babies are safe, warm, and well-fed. A world were guns are used to hunt animals not kill people. A world were every parent takes themselves and their children to the doctor and dentist when they need to. A world where our children are educated. A world where respect is the trump card.

And I saw little hope of that world coming from the Republican Convention. Contrast the key note addresses - one forward looking and hopeful, one filled with invective and insanity.

Yikes!

I urge you all to participate in the get out the vote effort.

Jody

The race is tied right now, and the shaded weighting on likely voters and samples is almost universal, although it varies from a little to a lot.

Anyone showing more than a three point spread is wrong.

Bel,

If I understand you correctly, you will forgive me if I am a Republican and thus feel compelled to vote for Bush out of party loyalty, but can't understand how I would vote for him because I actually support him.

I can forgive YOU if you are voting for Kerry because you actually believe he is the right man for the job. But if you are voting for him out of party loyalty or (as it seems) because he is NOT BUSH, then that seems incredibly sad.

You have it exactly backwards. There is real anger, bordering on hatred, directed towards Bush. Those people will ridicule Bush all day long but aren't really enamored of Kerry. This is not an affirmative vote for Kerry. It is easy to dislike a situation, but it takes real conviction to trudge through snow to do something about it. I don't believe that Kerry has even as much real support as the polls show. I think a good number of the sincere people on this site know that in their hearts.

Yes, we Bush supporters are true believers in Bush and will all show up on Nov 2nd. That belief is seared, SEARED in my heart (I hope you caught that dig) and I will repeat!

I am taking ALL wagers. Anyone who wants to put up or shut up, Bring It ON!

Kerry will make a push in the next few weeks. He may even appear to be ahead in the polls. But displeasure with Bush will not impel people to go vote for Kerry.

My dislike for Kerry is the same as my dislike for Tammy Faye Baker, Jimmy Swaggart, used car salesmen, Hillary, Barry Switzer, personal injury lawyers, aggressive solicitors of any stripe that prey on the elderly, Larry Flynt, and I'm just getting started but I think you get my drift. Basically anyone who pretends to be sincere but really wants to manipulate others for their own agenda.

Bush is not intellectual, effete, sophisticated, urbane, nuanced, complex....you can tick them off better than I (and probably will).

He is solid, consistent, clear, predictable, SINCERE, honest and dependable. What you see is what you get. We aren't picking a lover or dinner companion on Nov 2nd. We are hiring one man to manage the affairs of state for the whole country. I am affirmatively voting for Bush.

Whatchoo got my friend! Can you honestly say what Kerry's rock-frigging-bottom position is on any issue? Not his "on this hand, but on the other hand" equivocating, nuanced word dance but his real IS THAT YOUR FINAL ANSWER, no mulligans, no do-overs, all sales are final, answer!

As Zell said yes, no, maybe, BOWL A' MUSH!

Come on now, Bel, give me one reason that doesn't invoke Bush's name. Whatchoo got! I think you got....

4 MORE YEARS!

I like Kerry.

some Dems worry that he is seen
wind surfing, off an island resort
popular with the rich.

and who doesn't know that Kerry
is rich -- like almost everyone in
Congress, and Bush and Cheney,
et al -- and that Kerry's wife is
truly rich.

so why pretend otherwise? do they
want him to go out and get himself
photographed "clearing brush"?

Kerry am what he am. he's a rich guy
who likes politics and wind surfing.

and who's the girlie man? Kerry climbs
in bed with a multimillionairess.
many men would be so intimidated
by her money they couldn't, uh,
they'd need big help from Bob Dole's
cute blue pills. Big help. but Kerry
seems able to rise to the challenge.

now some say Bush is "SINCERE".
it reminds me that for an actor doing
TV commercials, they say,
"SINCERITY is what matters -- and
if you can fake that, you've got it made."
Bush has made it, for sure!

but then, some say Bush is not
intellectual. and I'll grant you that.
so what's the problem? is Kerry too
intelligent to be President? don't we
need the smartest, bravest, most
manly and self-confident guy we
can get? or a fake?

Woody,

I like how you think.