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Bush Has Small Lead in MN Poll

A poll of Minnesota LV's by Mason Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for the St.
Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesotra Public Radio conducted Sept. 11-14 has Bush
ahead of Kerry 46-44 percent, with 1 percent for Nader and 9 percent undecided.


Both of these polls used RVs. What of the Star Tribune poll that used LVs and came out with Kerry up by 9?

Mason-Dixon were the only ones to have Norm Coleman leading in the final 2002 polls.

The Star has been criticized for "overly academic weighting" which probably mean they give high weights to undereducated voters.

MN is close. A 9 point Kerry lead seems a bit of a stretch.

"The Star has been criticized for "overly academic weighting" which probably mean they give high weights to undereducated voters."

Do you know who made those criticizms? The head of the MN GOP. Mysteriously, he made those criticisms On Sept. 10th, when the Strib was surveying Sept. 7th through Sept. 13th. Then the poll comes out on the 15th and it has no credibility.

Convenient. Add to that the fact that after posting a 9 point Kerry lead, the Stribs headline says "Bush Inching in on Kerry Lead." What a bunch of saps.

Your detailed analysis of poll data is always interesting. What is your analysis of the large jump, 16%, in favor of Bush in the USA/CNN/Gallup poll released today? Could this be a sympathy response for Bush that has been created by fact that the CBS memos denigrating his Nat'l Guard service are proving to be fakes?

Brantley Johnson - Angry Democrat!


I'm obviously not Ruy, nor a member of the staff here. But I'd point out that there was no 16 point jump. Several sources put the race at a 5% Bush lead. If that's so, then if you run enough polls, you'll find one with as large of a lead as Gallup shows for Bush, along with several that will show a virtual deadlock, such as Pew or Harris. Add to that varying methodologies for determining what are likely voters and you get an even better understanding of why polls give you different figures.

I'm skeptical that many people are attending to the CBS documents issue. As I browse, most undecided people seem to be reporting that they want to hear more about what will happen in the next 4 years.