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Bush Ahead in New Florida Poll

A SurveyUSA poll of Florida LV's for TV stations in six cities conducted Sept. 12-14 has Bush at 51 percent, Kerry at 45 percent with 3 percent undecided, in a head-to-head match-up.

Kerry Lags by 4% in Nevada

Bush has 51 percent, Kerry has 47 percent, with 2 percent undecided in a head-to-head SurveyUSA poll of Nevada LV's conducted Sept. 11-13 for KVBC-TV Las Vegas.


Two things to point out:

(1) all of these polls report likely voters, which isn't necessarily incorrect, but does employ certain assumptions about voter turnout.

GOTV efforts, obviously, can make a huge difference, and this is an area in which the Dems have been losing ground to the GOP over the last two decades. Hopefully the DNC is developing an effective field machine, gathering corps of volunteers to phone Democratic voters less likely to vote (i.e., those below the median income) as well as undecided voters on election day and offer rides/baked cookies/lemonade etc.

(2) in the FL poll for the SAME RESPONDENTS there is quite a bit of ticket-splitting, as Castor (D) is ahead of Martinez (R) in the Senate 49 to 45.

Now this suggests to me that there remains about 5-6% of voters in FL who are seriously in play.

In general, Kerry needs to make better use of local politicians who are (sometimes) more popular than he is in their states--not merely FL but elsewhere, esp. in swing states that have popular Dem governors, i.e., AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, etc. I know that some coordinated campaigning has been done, but not nearly enough. And there are some governors (e.g., Mike Easley in NC) who do not seem to want to share the stage with Kerry.

Nader is back on the FL ballot. So, it probably is worse for Kerry. And yet, I know we will win. I took a poll in the mirror this morning and Kerry is doing fine. Thank you zanex.

What is the percentage of Registered Voters?

Never mind. I just checked, and there are no RV figures. I wish to hell they would stop taunting us with figures that are likely imaginary.

I think this poll is worthless, with all the hurricane stuff the past two weeks, does anyone realistically believe an accurate poll would come out of that mess at least until Ivan blows past.

Florida polls can't be worth much right now, with the hurricane and all. (If South Florida got evacuated this week, but the Panhandle's evacuating this week, I'd expect gains for Kerry next week based solely on who will be home to answer their phones.) The NV results are unfortunate, but we don't need that state to win: we do, I think, need either CO or WI or BOTH FL and OH.

The Florida poll must favor northern Florida, since that's the part that isn't evacuated/reeling re: the hurricane. It's also the more GOP-heavy part of the state. It's a crappy poll.

About what states are needed. If Kerry were to win all the Gore 2000 states, and Bush retain all the Bush 2000 states, then Bush wins 278-260.

Using that as a baseline, if the only change is Kerry winning Ohio, he wins 280-258. If Wisconsin also changes (to Bush), Kerry still wins 270-268. So...Kerry doesn't need to win both Florida and Ohio, assuming he can hold all of the Gore states, or that he loses no Gore state worth more than 10 electoral votes. [That is, if he gets Ohio, he can lose any one of Minnesota, Iowan, Wisconsin, Maine, Oregon, or New Mexico.]

Florida is worth 27 electoral votes, so if Kerry were to win there, that would add another 7 electoral vote buffer.

And he has the lead in New Hampshire, which also gives him another 4 electoral votes.

So...Going back to Nevada....If Kerry can keep Pennsylania and Michigan and pry away either Florida or Ohio, there's a good change Nevada won't matter.

But...if the only changes from 2000 are Kerry getting New Hampshire and Nevada, the election ends up deadlocked at 269, throwing it to the House and Senate to pick President and VP. If the Dems can pry away the Senate, that could well leave us with a Bush/Edwards tandem. That's not what I'd prefer, but better a half loaf than nothing, so I want Nevada to go Democratic.

Anyone know a URL that has a good discussion of why RoboPolls suck?

I got into an extended and heated argument with a local TV station's news director over his use of Survey USA in the last mayor's race.

The Poll was off by over 12% in the event and prior to the last polling round, was off by a similar margin from a highly respected normal poll

Lest we get carried away in a RoboPoll Panic Attack, how bout some GOOD news from a REAL one?

MINNEAPOLIS - Democratic candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) leads President Bush (news - web sites), 50 percent to 41 percent, in a presidential poll of likely voters in Minnesota, according to results released Wednesday.

AP Photo

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The Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows 8 percent of likely voters in the state remain undecided. Independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) received less than 1 percent in the poll.

and more good news, A judge threw Nader off the ballot yet again.

Looks like Nevadans definitely want the nuclear dump in their state. I'm beginning to think may be we deserve this moron as the president.

What in the world is the MoE for these polls, especially the FL one. I have trouble believing Bush surged that much so fast. I could believe Bush is up, but within or just barely outside the margin. Also, I agree with the general sentiment that if millions of people don't have TV or electriticity or are generally displaced, polling is worthless for another couple weeks in the sunshine state.

Still, NV is good news, 4 points is probabbly w/i MoE. Kerry needs to do another trip out to Vegas and the Vegas burbs to help the house candidate there (get some $) and raise the spirits of his Nevada campaign.

I would say Kerry needs NH WV and then try to get either FL or OH for good measure; right now, it looks like FL is a better bet than OH.

Bush won Nevada by just under 4% in 2000.

Bush 301,575 49.52%

Gore 279,978 45.98%

Sorry, I intended to paste the address, but the site wouldn't let me . It is:


So what if Iraq HAD WMD and a way to deliver them. . . so did Russia for so many years. So why didn't they zap us when they had the chance?

Because we have the enormous power to retaliate, that's why. Therefore, it dosen't wash that Saddam would've delivered WMD to the USA.

WMD was nothing but a pretext from Bush and Co. to grab a significant oil producing country AND scare the heck out of us so he can do what he pleases in the name of national security.

Big John