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CBS poll shows Kerry/Edwards 46%-45% vs. Bush/Cheney

An Aug. 15-18 CBS poll gives Kerry/Edwards a one-point lead over Bush/Cheney. Without Ralph Nader included, the Kerry advantage rises to 3% - Kerry/Edwards 47% vs. Bush/Cheney 44%

Comments

This CBS poll has gotten a lot of attention these past couple of days but here is why I am less concerned about it than others.

Asides from the veterans, which the polls shows is going for Bush by about 15% (incidently, Bush won the veterans vote in 2000 by about 35% - which means that in overall total number this is still a 20% gain for the Dems - considering that veterans make up about 10% of population, that means this is a total pick up of about 2% total for Dems and a loss of 2% overall for Bush).

Anyway, you'll notice that Bush's numbers still hover at the 44 to 45% mark, which is essentially where he is always at.

Bush will not win anything with 45% of the vote.

Thus, the dynamics are unchanged. If you think that Nader will get 2% of the vote. Bush 44% to 46%, that means that Kerry will win 52% to 54% of the vote.

So despite the bruhaha, this poll still shows Bush in trouble.

I suppose with the lead up to the Republican convention, the media has to talk about something.
But I wouldn't worry too much about it.

When polls come out (not counting Gallup which always over-counts republicans by about 8%) that show Bush consistently getting 48% to 50% and Kerry getting about the same, then I will start to worry.

But when the polls demonstrate a close race at 44% or 45%, then this is just as bad as Bush getting 44% to 45% and Kerry getting 52 to 54%.

Because the undecideds always go to the challenger.

Remember 1980. The race was always "close" between Reagan and Carter - about 42% or so. This went on all the way to election day. Then Carter stayed at 42% and Reagan got the rest.

...Continued from above

Case in point:

No matter how the question is asked:

Do you believe it is time for a change?

Does Bush Deserve to be reelected?

Is America on the Right or Wrong track?

etc.

Consistently, 52 to 54% vote that it is time to change the leadership of the country.

That is why Bush never exceeds 44 to 46%. Because the remainder of people disagree with him.

If you look at it historically, this number is very important in the final outcome of the election.

The approval rating (Bush typically in the mid-40s) vs those who think it is time for a change (typically in the low 50s).

This poll doesn't do anything to undermine that argument.

So no worries. We're still doing okay.

Kerry has to do a better job defining this election. I told you all it was a mistake to focus so much on foreign affairs and his Vietnam record. Because those who vote on that subject will vote for Bush regardless of what is happening in Iraq or his own record in the military.

Kerry's statement to the effect that he wouldn't have changed his vote for the IWR was just stupid.

It isn't too late. But Kerry definitely has to define this election about the economy - the haves vs the have nots.

That's how he will win.

He needs a consistent confident message that people understand and resonates.

This poll, and other recent polls, is about Kerry - not Bush.

I see VoteHillary.org which pushed a 2004 Hillary Rodham Clinton Draft presidency is now pushing her for president in 2008. The site is http://www.votehillary.org I have heard it will be launched as early as next week.

So what John?

Jeff, yes. The future is now.

Why does Bush say the country would be better off if he is re-elected. Maybe he didn't remember that 9-11 happened on his watch.?????