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Pew Poll Has Kerry Ahead by 5, Bush Approval at 44

The just-released Pew poll is singing the same song as the Gallup poll I discussed yesterday. Kerry leads Bush by 5 points among RVs (50-45), which includes leads of 7 points among independents, 14 points among seniors and 22 points among 18-29 year olds. And Bush's approval rating is down to 44 percent with 48 percent disapproval (40/49 among independents).

The Pew poll also has satisfaction with the direction of the country down to 33 percent, with 61 percent dissatisfied. In early January, the same indicator was at 45/48.

And Kerry, as in the Gallup poll, is faring better in match-ups with Bush on who can do the best job on various issues. Kerry is now leading by 22 on improving the health care system (up from 13); by 15 on improving the job situation (up from 8); by 15 on improving education (up from 4); and by 10 on improving economic conditions (up from 5). He has also mostly eliminated Bush's leads on making wise decisions about foreign policy (now 1 point, down from 6 previously) and, critically, about what to do in Iraq (now 3 points, down from 12 before).

Looks like all those pundits who thought Bush was escaping unscathed from the recent torrent of bad news were calling it early--way early.

Comments

I'm on Zogby's email list for taking online polls. On the last few, I've stopped responding when I reached this question on the first page:

"In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself to be a member ...
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Libertarian
Constitution
Green
Natural Law
Reform
Other
Not sure
Refused"

I encourage others to join me in sending an email to marc@zogby.com asking why they don't have the DemocratIC party listed.

Thanks.

Look more closely at the Pew polls (pg 17-18), when they divide groups among certain bush/certain kerry and leaning bush/leaning kerry. Try this: first assume that only those who are "certain" about their choice will vote november and that their totals will be 100%. Next assume only those "certain" or "leaning" will show up in november (=100%) and no one who is now undecided would. In almost every group, Bush's support among "certain" voters is worse than among "certain" + "leaning" voters. This tells me that those who will vote for Kerry are more determined than those who will vote for Bush. It also says that more of Bush's numbers at this stage rely on soft support! It seems Bush is only going to have more and more trouble as more of his support is disheartened by his incompetence and more Americans line up behind Kerry, whom they will increasingly see as the better alternative. And that's even before undecideds will break overwhelmingly for the challenger Kerry.

Bush is a lame duck, dead in the water! As Andrew Kohut's NYTimes op-ed reassures us: Kerry is in a better position than any challenger in history against an elected incumbent (even though Bush clearly was not elected). Now let's work on registering and mobilizing voters so we can give President Kerry the Democratic Congress he deserves!