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Kerry Strong Among Hispanics in the Southwest

The New Democrat Network (NDN) is set to release a poll tomorrow of Hispanics in four key states: Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada. There'll be more to say about the poll then, when the full results are available, but NDN has already dribbled out a few results for newspapers in those states.

While he is behind among Florida Hispanics, apparently because of overwhelming suppport for Bush among Cuban-American Hispanics, in the southwestern states of Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada, Kerry's looking very strong. Among Nevada Hispanics, Kerry is ahead of Bush 58-31, a 27 point lead that is quite close to Gore's 31 point lead in 2000. And Kerry is ahead by 59-30 among Arizona Hispanics, a 29 point lead that is closely approximates Gore's 2000 margin in that state (also 31 points). Finally, in New Mexico, Kerry is ahead by an overwhelming 64-25; that 39 point lead is actually a bit larger than Gore's very healthy 34 point lead in 2000.

So Kerry's looking very good among southwestern Hispanics, a tale that was also told in the Democracy Corps poll of Hispanics that was released back in March. More on this poll tomorrow.

Comments

I guess this is good, because Bush may have gotten a boost w/ Hispanics after his green card stunt, but it doesn't look like Kerry is doing any better than Gore with Hispanics, and I'm not surprised that things are shaping up like the way they did in 2000 with these four states:

Florida-virtual tie
Arizona-Bush advantage
New Mexico-virtual tie
Nevada-Bush advantage

The comparisons made are between Kerry's standing with Hispanics now and Gore's at the time of the election. Is there any available info on how Kerry's figures compare to some of Gore's from earlier in that campaign?

While I'll be the first to agree that these aren't in any way BAD figures, I wouldn't leap to classify them as "good" -- because Gore did, after all, lose Nevada and Arizona. Surely "good" for Kerry would be larger leads, boosting his chances of winning; matching Gore's numbers is just holding in place.

Due to the amnesty and the Bush family's popularity with Hispanics and due to things like gays and abortion, I don't know if Kerry will ever do well enough in this group. All Bush needs is 40% of their vote in order to win, and he seems well on his way to that.

If the percentages of the Hispanic vote stay the same as 2000, if we registered and turned out a larger Hispanic vote wouldn't that be a Democratic advantage?

Hispanics have been the main demographic group targeted by Bush and Rove. It's significant that they do not appear tp have made substantial progress. Because of the increase in the Hispanic total vote, Bush would need to get 38% nationally in 2004 in order to lose Hispanics by the same total vote margin as in 2000. In the Southwest, where Hispanic growth is even faster, he would need a higher percentage than that. Increased Hispanic support would not be sufficient to bring Arizona or Nevada into the Kerry column, but it could certainly provide the margin of victory if Bush's support among white non-Hispanics remains at its current low level, or sinks further.

And, the real significance of these numbers is that they all carry an "undecided" number of about 11%. Given a 75/25 split DtoR (a reasonably typical range when an incumbent runs), that's another couple of points in margin to Kerry, which should boost his numbers to more than Gore's.
Add in the substantial voter growth (both in absolute numbers and relative to Anglo growth in these states), and Kerry's in great shape.

Richardson should be the VP choice. He could possibly bring three red states and over 40 electoral votes into the Dem column, plus make New Mexico and California secure.

I know he said he's not interested, but we need him on the ticket. Kerry and the Party leaders should make that clear to him.

Can anyone tell me why Kerry is demagoguing on gas prices and strategic petroleum reserves right now? stupid and proof that mcaulliffe should have been fired long ago.

Talking about gas prices a good idea, given that their ridiculously high right now. I'm not so sure people care that much about petroleum reserves, but I remember the Bush bounced back from Gore grabbing his lead by talking about Gore's stance on our oil reserves, or something like that.

I agree with precinct1233. The undecideds will go overwhelmingly for Kerry, so he's in even better shape than these numbers indicate. Bush's share of the vote among Hispanics will probably not get much higher than it is now, while Kerry's will increase by a decent amount.

Question--how accurate are these "partisan" polls? As a yellow-dog Democrat, I'm usually cheered by polls done by our party or groups that lean our way, but I brush off GOP polls as "biased." Is that what we're doing here? (I mean those who are celebrating this news, including Mr. Teixeira)

Another thing--if they're correct, the figures are good, even if Kerry does only as well as Gore, because of the huge growth in the Hispanic population (and hopefully citizenship and voting rates).

I agree that talking about gas prices and linking Bush to the Saudis is a very good idea. This affects people's day-to-day lives, whereas they just try to ignore Iraq as much as possible. It also makes Bush look out of touch.