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More on Young Voters' Democratic Leanings

I had a brief note in DR on March 2nd about the latest Newsweek "GENext" poll that showed young voters leaning toward the Democrats. The full results of that poll have now been released, so a more complete account of these pro-Democratic leanings--and strong leanings they are--is given below.

In the poll, Bush's approval rating among young voters is just 46 percent, down 8 points from a month ago. His appproval ratings on the economy and “domestic issues like health care, education, the environment and energy” are even worse: 40 pecent approval/56 percent disapproval and 39 percent approval/58 percent disapproval, respectively.

Young voters are also strongly convinced the country is off on the wrong track (58 percent), rather than going in the right direction (40 percent).

And the number saying they will definitely vote against Bush is up to 47 percent, a 13 points rise from last month. That compares to a mere 28 percent of young voters who say they would definitely vote to re-elect him. Moreover, in a direct Kerry-Bush matchup, young voters choose Kerry over Bush by an impressive 15 point margin (56 percent to 41 percent).

The strong pro-Democratic tilt among young people extends to the question of which party they want to see gain control of Congress: by a 13 point margin (50 percent to 37 percent), they prefer the Democrats.


So how do we get young democratic leaning voters to the polls?

Good news, but did you see this? Kind of puts a damper on things...


"the number saying they will definitely vote against Bush is up to 47 percent, a 13 points rise from last month."

A change so dramatic and fast is likely to be "soft" or easily
reversed, no?

Ben's right. This support is fleeting and the young voters will return to him in droves as we start pulling out of Iraq and the economy improves (any miniscule job growth will be touted by the media as an improvement).

Even if a ton of young voters were against Bush, that wouldn't matter, because most of them don't actually do that thing called voting. The pro-Bush youth DO vote, or if they aren't old enough, bully the people around them into voting for him. The polls in 2000 and 2002 said Democrats would do well, and they didn't because our GetOutTheVote was much worse than Republicans. Polls don't matter; only GOTV matters.

Here are a few truly frightening and depressing stories about many young voters. They've already made big differences in getting fascists elected to office in Indiana, Virginia, and many other states. They are a menace to our freedoms and their influence grows every day. GOTV is critical due to cretins such as these.



So pessimistic, Peter.

>>Ben's right. This support is fleeting and the young voters >>will return to him in droves as we start pulling out of Iraq
>>and the economy improves (any miniscule job growth will
>>be touted by the media as an improvement).

"Will return", you say, not "may return".

As if young people are going to believe the media instead of their own "lying" eyes telling them they can't find a job.

Might as well give up now, Peter. I doubt even a Kerry victory would convince you he can win.

So I should just give up and stop caring or voting or anything because I have a pessimistic view? Wow, no wonder Democrats are doing so badly.

Youth voters, like many voters, don't vote based on ration or sense. They vote based on fear or what can easily manipulate them. The war on terror, Jesus, hating minorities, etc.

Young liberal voters are far less organized than conservatives. Don't attack me for saying the truth. Work to improve the GOTV effort for Democrats.

The 18-24 age group has something like a 30 percent voting rate, one of the lowest in the world. Winning this group isn't going to do much good among the electorate as a whole.

And on campuses at least, College Republicans and other conservative groups are light-years ahead of Democrats. There are all sorts of National Conservative Leaders of Tomorrow-type conferences, workshops, and seminars that have no real counterpart on the liberal side.

Most progressive-oriented people on campus are members of PIRGs or various single-issue groups, and are often Naderites who view Democrats as sellouts.

Peter, I raised a point you managed to gloss over in justifying your pessimism so I'll make it a little stronger:

Why would the youth vote, so apathetic, so not paying attention. nonetheless be swayed by a media blitz by the administration saying that the economy is looking up? If they don't care about the economy, they won't care about this, and if they do care about the economy they're going to be thinking about the real economy and not some Bush ad.

And how do you know they don't care? Last week, Bill Gates was touring campuses trying to boost enrollment in computer science departments. Good luck! The young have definitely gotten the word that this profession can no longer guarantee a middle-class lifestyle and are staying away in droves.

It's almost impossible to "spin" the economy as an issue to anyone who cares about and is dissatisfied about it.

No, the Bush spinmeisters will have to find something else to talk about.

Steve, my point was that there seems to be no real motivation among young people to vote Democrat. The only young people who are motivated to vote are young conservatives, and that's because they loathe and want to destroy gays, minorities, women, etc.

Still, even if I grant your premise which I don't, not completely, it's their anti-gay, anti-minority, anti-woman sentiments that will get the youth to vote Republican, not the Republicans ads that tout economic recovery.

I don't know how many young people you hang out with, but I recently lost a job where I was the "old man". Everyone else was 20 years younger than I. True, these "kids" were pushing 30 but there wasn't a Bush man in the bunch. They're very cynical and they do think about the economy.

Frankly, I'm beginning to find your continuing stereotyping of the young extremely tiresome. If instead of "young people" you were talking of "black people", no one would hesitate to call you racist.