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Horse Race Update

Yesterday, I cast a skeptical eye on the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll horse race result that had Bush over Kerry 2 points. It just did not match up plausibly with roughly contemporary results from Gallup and ABC New/Washington Post. Today, there's additional confirmation that the NBC News result is probably more an outlier than a trend.

The new ARG poll, conducted March 9-11, has Kerry over Bush by 7 points (50-43) among registered voters, including a very nice 9 point lead among all-important independent voters. It's also worth noting that, with Nader thrown in, Kerry's lead is still 6 points (48-42), with Nader only drawing 2 percent.

The ARG poll also registers Bush's approval rating at a mere 45 percent, which I believe is the lowest ever in this poll.

Comments

The thing I find most interesting here is the rumblings of discontent among Republicans about the economy and jobs. It would be interesting to see how this correlates with household income -- my guess is that the discontent among Republicans is mainly among people of average-to-below-average income, who are beginning to figure out that, while they may be in line with Bush's social conservatism, their economic interests aren't being well served by the Bush administration.

Greg

This may be slightly off on a tangent, but it is very timely given the recent events in Madrid. I am wondering about Bush's consistently favorable ratings regarding "fighting terrorism" and his continual lead over Kerry regarding his ability to combat terrorism. I have heard repeatedly that a new terrorist attack could be an "external event" that would send people scurrying back to Bush, because of their confidence in his ability to fight it.
But it seems to me that another terrorist attack, particularly of the kind that we saw in Madrid (where two previously distinct terrorist groups may be acting together) is very strong evidence that Bush is not winning the war on terrorism. He is using poor judgment, his ideological bent is causing us to approach the matter incorrectly and his domestic "starve the beast" plan is limiting our ability to execute the war properly. I realize this is all speculation, but at what point do we believe that the public will turn on W on this issue (like they have all the others) and realize that he is botching this one too?

I took at look at the ARG poll, and I was fascinated by two of the findings: first, that Bush's support among REPUBLICANS is softening. 17 percent of Republicans polled disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy. Double-digit disapproval among Republicans on the economy cannot be spun into good news for Bush; second, among Independents, Nader actually draws support away from BUSH! I think that if Kerry can avoid a major, and I mean major scandal, he's in an extraordinarily strong position to take the White House in November.

C. Ama

Here's the commercial that will win the election (based on real footage, I've seen it):

Video:
Bush sitting at Booker Elementary on Sept. 11, 2001
VO:
On September 11th 2001, President Bush was in Florida at the Booker Elementary school for a planned photo op. By the time he arrived he already knew the first tower of the World Trade Center had been attacked. He proceeded with the photo op. In this unedited footage you can see the moment Andrew Card, his chief of staff notifies the President of the second attack.

Video:
Card leans in to whisper to Bush
VO:
Card is quoted as saying, "
A second plane hit the second tower. America is under attack"
Watch the President's reaction.

(key over the video) HE KNOWS
VO:
The president went on with the photo op for a minimum of another 9 minutes (some witnesses say as long as twenty minutes), asking no questions, not acting, not responding to the crisis. At the same time Vice President Cheney was taken to a secure location. Weren't the children potentially at risk? Wasn't the president a target?
Would YOU call this steady leadership?


________________________

If you'd like to see the actual raw footage of Bush at Booker the file is large..25 megs...
but it can be downloaded here
http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/bushbook.mov

What a relief. Why is it that the political coloration of the organizations sponsoring or conducting the polls (NBC, WSJ, Fox) always seems to result in bias? How do their subjective wishes seem to get into the polls?

What I really want to hear is that Bush's intensive negative ad campaign ($6 million?) in the swing states is not working. Then I think we will know his goose is cooked. I have heard that the 527 campaigns plus Kerry are matching the Bush effort.