Horse Race Update
Yesterday, I cast a skeptical eye on the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll horse race result that had Bush over Kerry 2 points. It just did not match up plausibly with roughly contemporary results from Gallup and ABC New/Washington Post. Today, there's additional confirmation that the NBC News result is probably more an outlier than a trend.
The new ARG poll, conducted March 9-11, has Kerry over Bush by 7 points (50-43) among registered voters, including a very nice 9 point lead among all-important independent voters. It's also worth noting that, with Nader thrown in, Kerry's lead is still 6 points (48-42), with Nader only drawing 2 percent.
The ARG poll also registers Bush's approval rating at a mere 45 percent, which I believe is the lowest ever in this poll.