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More Bad News for Bush

Yesterday, DR reviewed some of the findings from the most recent Newsweek poll indicating Bush's current political vulnerability. Today, we'll take a look at the latest Quinnipiac University poll which is chock full of more bad news for Bush.

In this poll, Bush's approval rating is even lower than in the Newsweek poll, just 48 percent, with 45 percent disapproval. That's down 5 points from their last poll just a week ago. And John Kerry runs an impressive 8 points ahead of Bush in a head-to-head matchup, even breaking even among male voters.

Voters say, by more than 3:1 (67 percent to 21 percent), that the economy will be important to their November vote than Iraq. They also say, by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent) that a new Democratic administration would do a better job on this issue than the Bush administration. And even on Iraq, voters are about equally likely to think a new Democratic administration would do a better job (45 percent) as they are to believe the Bush administration (47 percent) would do better.

The poll also finds that only 52 percent now believe going to war with Iraq was the right thing, compared to 42 percent who believe it was the wrong thing. That's quite a narrow margin for a question that does not even mention the costs of the war. Note that independents (49 percent to 46 percent) and women (48 percent to 45 percent) are now almost split evenly on the question.

Finally, in a fascinating result that speaks to the difficulties the GOP may have using gay marriage as a wedge issue, while voters overall say they do not support a law allowing same sex civil unions, 53 percent to 40 percent, independents narrowly support such a law by 49 percent to 43 percent.

Comments

All this is very well -- and I hope you are right. But, recall that more than half the sample in the Newsweek poll still believe that Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9/11. What will happen when $170 million hits the airwaves and a gullible populace is faced with false and misleading information about George W. Bush, and about his opponent? Again, I hope you are right, but I am afraid.

For more good news, see the newest CNN poll, which has Bush at 49 percent approval and losing to Kerry 53-46 and to Edwards 49-48.

Does anyone know how these Dem/Rep matchups compare with matchups at the same point in the election cycle over the last 20 years or so? Is it normal for the incumbant to be behind the challenger when the outs are dominating the election news? I certainly don't remember Clinton losing to a Rep in the polls at any time, but further back I can't remember. Obviously, its better news if this Bush weakness is unusual than if its the normal swing. At least it might get the national media to recognize that Bush's popularity is a mile wide and a foot deep, and that a Dem has a good chance to chase him home to his father.

Some good news if it indicates a strong trend, but the poll I'd like to see one of registered/likely voters by swing states. Then add up the electoral votes !!