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Once Again on the Youth Question

Yesterday, DR argued that youth are leaning Democratic and therefore, the more young voters who show up at the polls in 2004, the better. Here’s more confirmation from a just-released Ipsos/Associated Press poll. In this poll, Bush’s overall approval rating, as well as his approval ratings on the economy and on foreign policy, are all 7-10 points lower among young (18-29 years old) voters than among voters as a whole. And, among young voters, just 28 percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, while 48 percent say they would definitely vote for somebody else. That compares to a 41 percent/36 percent split among all voters.


Interesting. Any data on which Dem candidates are doing the best with youth?


Maybe the young are smarter than we think and have noticed that this President is trying to settle a huge debt load on their backs. . .

I wonder how that 30-39 group breaks down. My guess is that Bush is weak to 34 or 35. I think there is a significant if vague & only general cultural difference between those who remember Vietnam days & those whose memories begin with really long lines at the gas station, inflation, and Ford/Carter. The upper 30s started high school in the Carter years; the lower 30s started high school under Nancy Reagan, herpes/aids, and Just Say No.

I would love to believe this. But isn't there a possibility that the fundamental trouble with polls--that is, that only certain types of people are asked and only a subset of those poeple actually answer--is exacerbated or even mutated when polling people under the age of 30?

Isn't it hard to speculate that we have an emerging Democratic majority based on how the young vote? This doesn't seem to take into consideration that people change affiliations. Is there some historical analysis, like comparing how the Boomers vote now vs. how they voted when they were young?

Dean is the kind of guy (like Nader) who can get people to vote for him, because he isn't the typical senator career politician