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And Gallup Polls, They Just Keep Bouncin’, They Just Keep Bouncin’, Along

In mid-October, DR reported on a Gallup poll bounce in Bush’s approval rating from 50 percent to 55 percent. Comparison with other contemporary polls failed to confirm the Gallup approval bounce, suggesting that the Gallup result should be treated with skepticism.

Well, here it is early December and the gang from Gallup is back with another bounce in Bush’s approval rating from (what else?) 50 percent to 55 percent (measured from 11/14-16 to 12/5-7). Once again, your faithful servant, DR, has checked the other recent national polls for findings consistent with Gallup’s bounce. And, once again, there doesn’t seem to be any.

First, ABC/Washington Post, whose survey dates match up almost exactly with Gallup, has Bush’s approval rating dropping from 57 percent to 53 percent. Then, the Zogby poll has Bush’s job rating remaining essentially unchanged (48 percent to 49 percent) over the period from early November to 12/4-6. And Fox News has Bush’s approval rating holding steady at 52 percent between mid-November and 12/3-4. Finally, the Quinnipiac University poll has Bush’s approval rating at just 51 percent, measured 12/4-8, no change from its last poll at the end of October.

Not much bounce in those numbers. One interesting sidebar on the current Gallup rating, though: Bush’s approval rating among seniors is now 10 points below his rating among the public as a whole. Bush’s approval rating, according to the report linked to above, has generally run 5 or 6 points behind among seniors since his term began, so, with the Medicare bill passage, he actually now appears to be doing worse among this age group. Not exactly what they had in mind, DR suspects.


I suggest wanted to suggest two online polling resources that I noticed were not present on DK's resource page:

pollingreport.com aggregates (mostly) top line polling results on a number of subjects.

realclearpolitics.com has a great aggregate page on the Democratic primery state-by-state polls.


Great work as always.

A completely off topic question. Democrats always refer to the recipients of Dubya's tax cuts as the "wealthy". Occasionally they substitute a variety of words for wealthy, but one I never hear is "elites". David Brooks is fond of quoting poll numbers which suggested at 19% of Americans think they belong to the top 1% of wage earners and another 20% think they will be there some day. I wonder how many of these folks would consider themselves "elites." I think, although I could be wrong, that a unique aspect of the American psychology has been its visercal dislike elites. They reek of aristocracy.
Now, I know considerably less about framing these issues than most, particularly DR, but wouldn't it be more effective to describe these tax cuts as "give aways to the elites."

Just a thought.

To James Solomon.
I think the best way to characterize the beneficiaries of the tax cut is not in percentages or terminology but dollar amounts (e.g., over $300,000) to make them realize that they're getting screwed.

I agree with Upper West. As Matthew Yglesias pointed out in one of his blog posts a little while back, almost nobody knows which percentage they're in on the scale of wage earners, but everyone knows how much money he or she makes.

I have a strong instinctual feel that the Medicare bill is going to backfire badly on the Republicans. I think the Dems can use it against them in the campaign to good effect.

Actually, one phrase that focused grouped well here, in Ontario, Canada, during recent elections was "people making more than $100,000, like myseld and Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones," where myself and Smith and Jones are the candidates.

People hate politicians. Rich people -- like us politicians -- shoul have to pay more! I think it will work well.

Bush's approval rating will go up more in light of Saddam's capture, but its all going to boil down to these things in november 2004:

-health care

the reps will talk "war on terrorism" and the dems will talk debt and defecit, but that's what it'll boil down to, so fluctuations in bush's approval rating won't matter to much; not at this point in time anyways